Serie A Odds: Juventus at AC Milan
| Juventus odds | +112 [BET NOW] |
| AC Milan odds | +260 [BET NOW] |
| Draw odds | +230 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-107/-115) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Tuesday at 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
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Two in-form Italian giants will meet on Tuesday afternoon at The San Siro.
Juventus, well on their way to a ninth consecutive Scudetto, will visit surging AC Milan, who can hop into fifth place with a win over The Old Lady under the lights.
Juventus are a perfect 4-0-0 with a +11 goal differential (13 goals for, 2 goals against) since the hiatus. The Old Lady are averaging 2.18 expected goals for and 0.64 expected goals against per match over that span.
AC Milan also come into this match in sparkling form, with three wins and a draw in their four matches since play resumed. Even though Juventus have the better record over the past three weeks, the Rossoneri boast nearly identical underlying metrics to Juve with a +1.48 average xG differential per match in their four matches since the restart.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
| AC Milan | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for per game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Expected goals for per game | 1.59 | 1.86 |
| Goals against per game | 1.23 | 0.87 |
| Expected goals against per game | 1.19 | 1.13 |
| Total goals per game | 2.53 | 2.97 |
| Total expected goals per game | 2.78 | 2.98 |
Overall, Juventus have the better numbers and are the stronger side, but this figures to be a tight match between two standout defenses. Both teams possess game-breaking talents up top, but I'd be pretty surprised if this game gets out of hand in either direction.
Goals should be tough to come by, but rather than backing the Under, I'm going to look toward the draw as I suspect this will be a low-event match.
Two in-form defenses should keep this game from getting out of hand and that, in turn, should mean that the draw will be in play throughout the contest.
