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La Liga Betting Odds: Picks,Predictions for Real Betis vs. Espanyol (Thursday, June 25)

La Liga Betting Odds: Picks,Predictions for Real Betis vs. Espanyol (Thursday, June 25) article feature image

Joan Gosa/Xinhua via Getty. Pictured: Wu Lei

  • Real Betis are +110 favorites over Espanyol (+245) in Thursday afternoon's La Liga match (4 p.m. ET, beIN Sports), with the draw set at +245.
  • Holding the last-place spot in the table, Espanyol will need a win in this match, but their advanced metrics show they should be a bit better than they are.
  • Below you'll find a complete preview for the match, including each side's expected goal stats, and a pick on the moneyline as well as the over/under.

Espanyol at Real Betis Odds, Pick

Espanyol odds +245 [BET NOW]
Real Betis odds +110 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +245 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+102/-127)
Time Thursday at 4 p.m. ET
TV beIN Sports

Odds as of Wednesday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Sitting in last place and five points from safety, Espanyol are in a must-win situation on Thursday as they travel to Benito Villamarin Stadium to take on Real Betis.

Anything less than three points would likely doom Espanyol to the Segunda Division, so I’d expect them to be on the front foot against Real Betis, who have nothing to play for and are winless in their three matches since play resumed.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Espanyol deserve a better fate than to be relegated as the last-place team in La Liga. The Periquitos aren’t particularly good, but their xG stats suggest they are the 16th-best team in La Liga this season and should have tallied 34 points this season instead of 24.

Espanyol’s offense is their main bugaboo as they rank second-to-last in both goals and expected goals in 2019-20. The good news is that they should be scoring more, as they average 0.4 more expected goals than actual goals per match this season.

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Another silver lining for Abelardo Fernandez’s side is that Real Betis rank in the bottom-five in goals allowed and expected goals conceded this season. In fact, Espanyol grade out better defensively than Los Verdiblancos.

Real Betis Espanyol
Goals for per game 1.33 0.87
Expected goals for per game 1.48 1.27
Goals against per game 1.6 1.63
Expected goals against per game 1.68 1.5
Total goals per game 2.93 2.5
Total expected goals per game 3.16 2.77

Real Betis were in an unenviable position when La Liga started back up. Los Verdiblancos were safe from relegation but too far from qualifying for European competition next season, so there’s been very little for Betis to strive for.

With two brutal matches against Real Madrid and Real Sociedad coming up next, Espanyol will need to go for broke against Real Betis if they want to play any more meaningful matches this season. That doesn’t really make them more likely to win, but I do think it should open the game up and could provide a plethora of scoring opportunities for both matches.

Considering that neither one of these defenses are anything to write home about and both offenses are better than they appear, I’ll take the Over 2.5 at any plus-number in addition to a play on Espanyol as an unpredictable should create more variance, which usually lends more value to the underdog.

Picks: Espanyol (+245); Over 2.5 (+102)

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