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La Liga Picks, Odds & Predictions: The Best Way to Bet on Real Madrid vs. Espanyol (Sunday, June 28)

La Liga Picks, Odds & Predictions: The Best Way to Bet on Real Madrid vs. Espanyol (Sunday, June 28) article feature image

Pedro Solado, Getty Images. Pictured: Marcelo

  • Updated La Liga odds make Real Madrid a massive favorite (odds: -205 on the three-way line) to beat Espanyol on Sunday afternoon.
  • Real Madrid have a lot to play for, as a victory would help them get one step closer to the La Liga title.
  • Michael Leboff makes his pick for Real Madrid vs. Espanyol and explains why he's betting on Los Blancos to fill up the score sheet.

La Liga: Real Madrid at Espanyol Odds & Picks

Real Madrid odds -205 [BET NOW]
Espanyol odds +550 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +340 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-134/+108)
Time Sunday at 4 p.m. ET
TV beIN Sports

Odds as of Sunday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Real Madrid can take a huge step towards the La Liga title with a win over Espanyol on Sunday. Barcelona struggled to a 2-2 draw with Celta Vigo on Saturday, leaving the door open for Madrid to hop two points ahead of the two Spanish giants with six matches to go.

As expected, Madrid are heavy favorites on the road against last-place Espanyol, who will need to pull off the stunner if they have any chance of avoiding relegation.

In most cases you’d consider taking one point from Madrid a huge accomplishment for a team like Espanyol, but Sunday that won’t be the case: Anything short of three points effectively ends the season for Los Periquitos.

Real Madrid Espanyol
Goals for per game 1.97 0.84
Expected goals for per game 2.05 1.26
Goals against per game 0.70 1.61
Expected goals against per game 1.02 1.49
Total goals per game 2.67 2.45
Total expected goals per game 3.08 2.76

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Real Madrid are an elite defensive team, ranking first in La Liga in goals against and second in expected goals against. A good offense is sexier than a strong defense, so that’s why we hear more about Madrid’s skilled ball-movers, but Zinedine Zidane’s backline is the key to Madrid’s success.

The odds and stats paint this match as a pretty one-sided affair. La Liga’s worst offense against arguably its best defense, you could probably see how this one is going to turn out.

I got burned backing Espanyol on Thursday against Real Betis, but Los Periquitos fittingly deserved better than a 1-0 loss in that match. The xG report from that one suggested the match should have ended 1-1 with Espanyol slightly winning the xG battle (1.13-1.07). That matched served as an appropriate microcosm for Espanyol’s unlucky season.

Madrid have been in fine form since La Liga returned and are the only team in the division with a perfect post-break record. Los Blancos should relish the opportunity to leapfrog Barcelona, and anything less than three points from this match would be unacceptable.

I’m not interested in either team on the moneyline, but I do think there are some interesting bets in the totals market. Even though both of these teams don’t typically play in high-scoring matches, the odds imply this match goes over 2.5 goals more often than not (54.4% implied probability), and I think this game will actually be a pretty exciting watch.

I’m trusting that Espanyol will give this match a real go and open things up, which should invite Madrid’s talismanic attackers forward. There should be chances in this game for Los Blancos and, even though you should expect to lose this bet more often than you win, I think Madrid should have more than enough looks at goal to provide value on their team total to go over 2.5 at +188.

Picks: Real Madrid Team Total Over 2.5 (+188)

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CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.

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