Liverpool vs Burnley Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Match Preview
Chris Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Ryan Gravenberch.
Liverpool vs Burnley Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -550 |
| Burnley Odds | +1400 |
| Draw | +650 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -111 / +100 |
League leaders Liverpool will look to rebound from their second league defeat of the season when they face a Burnley side that is quickly running out of time to mount a serious effort to avoid relegation.
The Reds were thoroughly beaten 3-1 at Arsenal last Sunday, ending a nine-match unbeaten run in all competitions, a 15-match unbeaten spell in league play and a four-match winning streak. It also significantly narrowed the gap at the time of the table; by kickoff, it's possible Liverpool could be sitting second if Manchester City win their earlier Saturday home fixture against Everton.
Burnley enter the weekend in 19th, seven points from safety at the moment and facing continued uncertainty over just how many points they'd need to achieve survival given the Financial Fair Play charges levied at Everton and Nottingham Forest. But they did snap a four-match losing run with a 2-2 home draw to Fulham last weekend.
The Reds have won the last four in this fixture, including a 2-0 league triumph at Turf Moor on Boxing Day on goals from Darwin Nunez and Diogo Jota.
Let's dive into my Liverpool vs Burnley prediction.
Liverpool
Until Sunday's decisive defeat to Arsenal, Liverpool had fared better than could be expected in the absence of leading scorer Mo Salah — who last featured for his club on New Year's Day before playing for Egypt at the African Cup of Nations and then suffering a calf injury likely to again see him sidelined on Saturday.
The Reds won five and drew one in their first six matches in all competitions without him leading the line, and they showed no signs of slowing attacking production, outscoring those six opponents 18-5.
And the nature of Arsenal's domination last Sunday was so thorough that even a healthy Salah probably would've been too far up the field to significantly impact the outcome. Mikel Arteta's squad dominated the Reds all over the park, and Jurgen Klopp's men created nothing that felt like a truly dangerous chance. The numbers bear that out, with Arsenal leading 3.4 to 0.5 in expected goals and Liverpool's "best" chance of their 10 shots registering only a 0.10 xG value.
Working in Liverpool's favor Saturday will be their immaculate home form. Their 2.64 points per match at Anfield is the best home record in the league — Narrowly in front of Arsenal and Aston Villa — and their +21 home goal differential is two better than the next closest side.
They've also been eerily consistent in their home triumphs, scoring three or four goals in all but one of their nine home league wins.
Burnley
While Burnley was one of the Premier League's most active teams during the primary transfer window following their promotion from the League Championship, a far more reserved approach to the secondary window shows they don't view a potential return to the second tier as a death sentence.
So does the club's willingness to allow Vincent Kompany to manage through these current Premier League struggles when relegation rivals like Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest were much quicker to part with their skippers.
But striker David Fofana has already made an immense impact since his loan from Chelsea, coming on in the 63rd minute to score both goals as the Clarets rallied to a 2-2 draw against visiting Fulham in just his second Premier League appearance for his current club and fifth overall.
He could be in line for his second career PL start Saturday, while Montpellier loanee Maxime Estevee could make his first after the defender spotted the injured Hjalmar Ekdal at halftime of that home draw.
Burnley's away form has been slightly better than their home results, with three of their four Premier League victories earned away from Turf Moor. But they haven't taken points from any of their matches at top-half opposition, including losses to the four teams most closely trailing Liverpool: Manchester City, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur.
Liverpool vs Burnley
Prediction
The problem with this kind of game is that if there's value anywhere on the moneyline, it's on the ugly number next to Liverpool's name. The -550 odds here imply an 84.6% probability of a Liverpool win. And this year's results suggest that's a little low, if anything.
The league's current bottom three (not including Everton, whose position is based on a 10-point deduction) have posted a record of 0-6-1 (W-L-D) when playing away from home at the current top four. And the one blemish there is Sheffield United's 1-1 draw at an Aston Villa side that is easily the worst defensive group of the four.
So if that's the value you're going to back, you have to find a creative way to do it. It might lie in Burnley's record when playing such foes.
Perhaps one reason Kompany is still in the job at Burnley is that he has been steadfast in his commitment to trying to play proactively even while at a talent disadvantage.
It's a characteristic that made the Clarets one of the most enjoyable watches in recent memory in the League Championship last season.
And it has resulted in his side scoring in eight of their 16 league defeats this season, including four of their seven away losses. Most interestingly for our gambling purposes, they've scored in all three of their other away fixtures against the current top four.
Liverpool have kept clean sheets in less than half of their games against bottom-half opponents at home, but it has largely correlated with the kind of team they've been facing. Bournemouth, Chelsea and Fulham all scored in their Anfield defeats.
So the play here is tying a Liverpool win to both teams scoring at +146 odds and an implied 40.7% probability.
Pick: Liverpool and yes – both teams to score, same-game parlay (+146 via ESPNBet)
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