Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Montreal Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Can Canadian Underdogs Deliver Holiday Fireworks?

Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Montreal Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Can Canadian Underdogs Deliver Holiday Fireworks? article feature image

Shaun Clark/Getty Images. Los Angeles Galaxy star Javier “Chicharito” Hernández celebrates a goal.

LA Galaxy vs. Montreal Odds

LA Galaxy Odds-130
Montreal Odds+300
Over/Under2.5 (-175 / +120)
Day | TimeMonday | 10:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds updated as of Monday evening via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The Los Angeles Galaxy will attempt to respond from a tough home defeat Monday when they host in-form Montreal in Major League Soccer action.

The Galaxy fell behind and eventually finished with nine men in a 3-2 loss to Minnesota United last time out that was their fourth home defeat this season.

The same night, Montreal overcame an early goal and put together an impressive 2-1 road win against Seattle on the strength of Mason Toye's brace.

Overall, this is these clubs' first meeting since Los Angeles earned a 2-1 home win on Sept. 21 in 2019.

Los Angeles Galaxy

As inconsistent as the Galaxy have been, imagine where they'd be without Dejan Joveljic.

The 22-year-old Serbian striker has four goals and two assists in his last three games, including a contribution to every goal in Los Angeles’ last win. That was a 4-1 home victory against Austin FC.

He has only started once behind Mexican star Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez. However, red-card suspensions for wingers Douglas Costa and Kevin Cabral could see Joveljic get into the starting lineup, albeit maybe not in his natural striking role.

By The Numbers

  • 4-0-1 — Los Angeles’ record (W-L-D) in games when Chicharito scores.
  • 3-3-5 — The Galaxy's record (W-L-D) in matches when Chicharito doesn't.
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There might not be a team built more opposite of Los Angeles than Montreal.

The Canadian side is light on stars — even former Tottenham Hotspur man Victor Wanyama has a workmanlike reputation — and heavy on underrated talent.

And even though the club is playing without injured MVP candidate Djordje Mihailovic, there hasn't been a noticeable dip in form since the start of June.

Most impressively, manager Wilfried Nancy and his team earned points in Seattle, while still managing to spare veteran attackers Romell Quioto and Joaquin Torres heavy minutes. They both featured off the bench and should be fresh for this affair.

By The Numbers

  • 2.15 — Montreal's points per game since start of April after spending February and March balancing MLS and CONCACAF Champions League fixtures.
  • 17 — Number of players appearing in more than half (at least nine) of Montreal's games.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a line that appears to be built mostly off xG models, where the Galaxy have slightly stronger numbers and good home statistics.

Aside from basic things like form, there's a couple quantifiable reasons to fade the favorites:

  1. Los Angeles’ home xG numbers owe partly to chasing games. The side conceded first in six of nine matches matches at Dignity Health Sports Park.
  2. This isn't a typical West Coast game for Montreal in terms of travel, given that it has been out West since its trip to Seattle.
  3. Manager Greg Vanney built his team around the concept of wide play, but it’ll be missing two of its three most-used wingers.

The instinct might say play Montreal getting +0.5 goals on the spread line at even money. However, trends and Nancy's aggressive tactics say there's more value on the win than the draw.

At +300 odds and a 25% improbability, you almost have to back the streaking visitors to pull off an upset.

The Pick: Montreal ML (+300)

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