Luton Town vs Man City Prediction | Premier League Odds & Picks
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Erling Haaland.
Luton Town vs Man City Odds
| Luton Town Odds | +1600 |
| Man City Odds | -700 |
| Draw | +700 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +187 |
Luton Town will be hosting Manchester City this Sunday at Kenilworth Road. Luton will be ecstatic with any sort of result in this one, while Manchester City will be looking to win a Premier League match for the first time since November 4th.
Luton Town currently sit 18th in the league, just one point from escaping the relegation zone. They are coming off a heartbreaking 4-3 loss against Arsenal, where Declan Rice scored the winning goal in the 97th minute.
Manchester City fans have endured their worst stretch under Pep Guardiola over the past four league matches. They have not won a single match during this stretch, drawing three and losing one. They are coming off a 1-0 loss to Aston Villa and now sit fourth in the table, six points off top.
Let’s see how this David versus Goliath matchup turns out in Luton Town vs Man City.
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Luton Town
Luton Town have picked up a few results as of late, however they have not played particularly pretty football. Over the last six matches, they have picked up four points, which is not good but for a team that was projected to be the worst in Premier League history, it really is not bad. The issue has been that they have tallied up less than 1 xG in each of those six matches.
There is very little creativity in this side, and it has shown as of late. Ross Barkley has been one of the few bright spots going forward, as he has turned into more of a deep lying playmaker for this side. But he is not given the opportunity to push forward as much as he would like to because he is constantly defending.
The experience of players like Townsend and Barkley have shown, as they are two of the more creative players in this side, but if teams are able to neutralize those two then there is very little around them. To the blind eye, they have looked solid defensively over the past couple months, when in reality they have been one of the more fortunate sides in the league up to this point.
The Hatters have already conceded 30 goals this year, the third-highest in the league, and their goalkeeper has saved almost four more expected goals, one of the highest in the league. This shows that not only have they been one of the worst defensive sides in the league, but it could have been much worse as well.
Man City
Manchester City need to win this match and get back some of the points they have dropped in recent weeks. In a regular run of form, this would be a match for some of the players who do not always start to get some time, but due to the lack of points City have picked up recently, I expect Guardiola to show no mercy in this one.
In their most recent match against Aston Villa, City were well and truly dominated for the first time in a long time. They managed just two shots in the 90 minutes, while Villa attempted 22. Emery got everything right in that match, while Pep got everything wrong.
This match also exemplifies how much they miss Kevin De Bruyne. He is one of the only players in the world that is able to break the lines of midfield and defense for the likes of Haaland and Bernardo to have an attempt on goal. Doku has been the most creative player for this side in De Bruyne’s absence and they were without him against Villa, and it showed.
Doku changes how this whole side plays because of his dribbling ability. His ability to run at defenders and take them on opens so much space for the other City players, without him they are relying on Foden, Alvarez and Bernardo to fill that role, when they are all far too similar in playstyle, hence the lack of that final ball recently.
Luton Town vs Man City
Prediction
How Guardiola sets up his side determines how this match will go, but City must win this match. If they don’t, they will slip even further away from Arsenal and Liverpool, who look to be the main threats to the title this year.
If Doku plays, I expect City to win easily as I think he will tear apart these Luton defenders. However, if he doesn’t play then I think this could be another challenge for Guardiola and these players. Luton will be defending for their lives for all 90 minutes in front of their home fans, and you never know what can happen in the Premier League.
Because of this uncertainty and City’s recent run of form, I will be taking City to win, but I will be pairing it with under 3.5 goals to make this -105.
Pick: Manchester City ML and Under 3.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
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