Saturday was wild around the league with late goals everywhere and home teams struggling. Value plays were successful, going 3-1 for +4.3 units won, and they could have been better if not for a late goal conceded by the New England Revolution.
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Although there’s only one match scheduled for Sunday in MLS, it’s one you won’t want to miss. The New York Red Bulls, sitting third in the Eastern Conference, host Los Angeles FC, who are tied for third in the Western Conference. It’s a classic matchup of East vs. West with plenty of star power on both sides.
Season Record: 42-44-2, +23.65 units, 27% ROI
(All odds via Pinnacle. All betting %s via Market Average)
Los Angeles FC at New York Red Bulls
Moneyline odds: NY Red Bulls -172, LA FC +451, Draw +366
Total: 3.5 (o-119)
Time: 6 p.m. ET
Both New York Red Bulls and LA FC are fully capable of scoring goals and in the top four in terms of xGF/g (expected goals for per game). They’re also good defensively and in the top 10 for xGA/g (expected goals allowed per game). Oddsmakers believe the edge goes to the offenses, though, setting a high total of 3.5 with juice on the over.
The Red Bulls are coming off a rare 3-2 home loss. They won their previous three matches but conceded three first-half goals to the Columbus Crew and weren’t able to recover.
LA FC had to settle for a 2-2 draw in their most recent match against the LA Galaxy, although it likely felt more like a loss. Just as they did in the first all-Los Angeles matchup this season, the Galaxy made a late comeback to steal points away from LA FC. Bob Bradley’s squad will look to erase that memory with win in their first-ever matchup with the NY Red Bulls.
At first glance, the odds seem to be way too high, but bettors should know the circumstances. LA FC plays in the US Open Cup semifinals on Wednesday in Houston, so their focus may not entirely be on today’s match. It also doesn’t help that LA had to travel across the country to New York and will have to travel again following the game.
LA FC’s moneyline has increased from +390 to +451 while the Red Bulls have gone from -143 to -172. The draw odds have also shifted from +310 to +366.
Public bettors either aren’t aware of LA FC’s schedule, or they don’t care, as nearly 50% of tickets are on the road team to pull off the upset. With the line moving the way it has, sharper bettors have taken the Red Bulls to win at home.
The value is mostly gone on the moneyline now, but it’s probably worth taking New York on the spread (-1). With the over/under trending upwards, I’m envisioning a 3-1 victory for the Red Bulls.
The Bet: New York Red Bulls -1 (-110)