MLS Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Our 3 Midweek Best Bets, Including Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution (Wednesday, Aug. 17)

MLS Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Our 3 Midweek Best Bets, Including Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution (Wednesday, Aug. 17) article feature image

Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto FC teammates Lorenzo Insigne and Jonathan Osorio celebrate a goal.

  • We have another exciting Major League Soccer schedule, with several key matches on the Wednesday card.
  • Analyst Ian Quillen has targeted three games he has found plenty betting value on ahead of these confrontations.
  • Check out below where he has landed with this top picks.

Major League Soccer rolls on Wednesday with five games on the latest slate.

North of the border, resurgent Toronto FC welcomes New England to BMO Field for an Eastern Conference six-pointer with major playoff implications.

In other action across the league, Charlotte FC continues a brutal bicoastal trip with a road match against New York City FC. And FC Dallas hosts Philadelphia in a game featuring teams with MLS Cup aspirations.

So, here our best bets for the midweek card.

Wednesday MLS Best Bets

Toronto FC vs. New England

Toronto Odds-105
New England Odds+235
Over/Under2.5 (-190 / +130)
Day | TimeWednesday | 7:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

This is the second meeting between these teams in three weeks, yet despite the first one ending in a 0-0 draw, there's reason to expect plenty of goals in this latest confrontation.

For starters, the Reds and Revolution combined to create 3.0 expected goals in the first contest. New England, in particular, was rescued by the exploits of goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic.

Secondly, both clubs' home-away trends point to higher scoring in Toronto than at Gillette Stadium. Manager Bruce Arena and the Revs rarely park the bus on their travels. Bob Bradley's Reds are more enterprising before the home fans.

It's pronounced enough that it's worth it to sell a half goal and play the total clearing three goals via the Asian Handicap at -105 odds and an implied 51.2% probability.

Between Toronto home games and New England away fixtures, the total has gone over three goals on 12 occasions and stayed under only four times.  If it falls on exactly three, the bet is a push.

With all of Toronto's Italian reinforcements and New England's continued injury troubles, the moneyline on the hosts is also appealing even at a much shorter price than when the line opened.

However, the relevant sample size pointing toward a wager on the total is much bigger.

By The Numbers

  • 3.31 — Average combined goals in Toronto FC home games.
  • 3.50 — Average combined goals in New England away games.

Quillen's Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (-105)

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NYCFC vs. Charlotte

NYCFC Odds-225
Charlotte Odds+500
Over/Under2.5 (-165 / +130)
Day | TimeWednesday | 7:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

It's tempting to look at Charlotte FC's 5-0 road loss to Los Angeles Football Club over the weekend and hammer New York City FC on a -1.5 goal handicap.

However, there are a couple reasons you shouldn't.

The biggest is that this game is being played at Red Bull Arena and not the uniquely compact pitch at Yankee Stadium. City has won six of its nine games in the Bronx by multiple goals. Between three home games played elsewhere and 12 away fixtures, NYCFC has exactly one multi-goal victory.

Secondly, City just hasn't played quite as well anywhere since manager Ronny Deila left for Standard Liege in Belgium and caretaker boss Nick Cushing took over. The Cityzens haven't been bad; just not as good as the odds suggest.

Thirdly, Charlotte's loss Saturday spiralled out of control early against a side challenging for the all-time MLS points record. It's a different universe from NYCFC right now. So, don't read too much into it.

That doesn't mean the expansion team will automatically bounce back here. However, City is playing more like a middle-of-the-playoff pack side at the moment. And this will be a tougher task for the Cityzens than the odds reflect.

By The Numbers

  • +2 — NYCFC's goal difference in three home games outside of Yankee Stadium.
  • 69.2 — Percentage of Charlotte away games decided by one goal or fewer.

Quillen's Pick: Charlotte +1.5 (-160)

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FC Dallas vs. Philadelphia

Dallas Odds+125
Philadelphia Odds+195
Over/Under2.5 (-135 / -110)
Day | TimeWednesday | 9 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Sometimes the trends point toward the over or under when it cones to the total When Philadelphia and FC Dallas meet, they point toward the middle.

In a league known for extreme results, Dallas and Philadelphia are outliers for their relative predictability in terms of how often goals will come.

That's particularly true when Dallas is at home and Philadelphia is away, which makes sense given how each side plays. It's just not true in a way that makes playing an over/under useful.

Eight of Dallas' 13 home games have seen two or three goals scored. The same is the case for seven of Philadelphia's 12 away fixtures.

That means a Goal Bands wager of 2-3 goals has hit a total of 60% of the time. And you can play it at +105 odds and an implied 48.8% probability.

By The Numbers

  • 7-3-3 — Dallas' home record (W-L-D) this season.
  • 5-3-4 — Philadelphia's away record (W-L-D) this campaign.

Quillen's Pick: Total Goal Bands — 2-3 Goals (+105)

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