MLS Odds, Picks & Prediction: New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC Betting Preview

RBNY vs. NYCFC Odds

The New York Red Bulls host New York City FC Sunday in what some are saying is the most important Hudson River derby ever played.

The clubs entered the weekend second and third in the Eastern Conference, with both currently in good form.

The Cityzens are unbeaten in four games under caretaker boss Nick Cushing and winners of two in a row after a 1-0 midweek road victory at FC Dallas.

The Red Bulls are unbeaten in three contests themselves, though they settled for a 1-1 draw against 10-man FC Cincinnati last weekend.

The Red Bulls romped past the Cityzens during a 3-0 rout in a U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal last month that was Cushing's second game in charge following Ronny Deila's departure for Standard Liege.

New York Red Bulls

The Red Bulls had among the strangest starts to the season in MLS history, winning their first six away games and failing to win their first six at home.

However, things have regressed at least somewhat toward league-wide trends since as RBNY has gotten better at generating opportunities against more conservative visiting foes.

Luquinhas' creative emergence is a big reason for that as well. The Brazilian, who signed from Legia Warsaw this past winter, wasn't 90 minutes fit at the start of the season. He has scored three of his five goals in the Red Bulls' three home wins.

Winger Lewis Morgan leads the team with nine goals, while manager Gerhard Struber still lacks a productive out-and-out center forward.

By The Numbers

• +5.3 — The difference between the combined goals (14) from Luquinhas and Morgan and combined xG during the campaign.
• -8.1 — The difference between everyone else on the roster's combined goals (14) and combined xG this season.

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New York City FC

The Cityzens will be four days removed from a first away victory under Cushing that looked a lot like how NYCFC won away fixtures under Deila.

With MLS Golden Boot leader Valentín Castellanos rested, Heber scored on 29 minutes. NYCFC mostly defended from there for its third away win of the season. The club has scored inside 30 minutes in all three outings.

Castellanos should return, even has he remains a potential European transfer target. However, he has only scored twice away, both coming from the spot.

By The Numbers

• 10.7 — NYCFC’s total xG in eight away matches this season.
• 1.38 — The Cityzens’ points per game earned on the road thus far.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Sometimes the MLS home-field advantage built into odds can be exploited when local rivals meet since travel rigors are lessened.

That's probably part of why the line has moved in NYCFC’s direction. However, the Cityzens are a special case because the disparity between their play home and away is larger than the league average. At least some of that owes to their comfort playing on the smallest pitch in the league at Yankee Stadium.

That said, the line hasn't moved far enough to where playing the hosts is wise, but it could be if it gets up to where the Red Bulls are no longer favorites. NYCFC remains the more talented squad, even with uninspiring away form.

For now, the better play is leveraging NYCFC’s relatively average offensive production at venues outside the Bronx on a bet that Cushing's team will score once and only once in this match.

At +155 odds and an implied 39.2% probability, you're playing a trend that has hit in five of nine RBNY home games, four of eight NYCFC away fixtures and five of 10 previous Hudson River derbies played in New Jersey.

The Pick: New York City FC — One Goal Exact (+155)