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Orlando City vs. San Jose Betting Preview: MLS Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tuesday, June 22

Orlando City vs. San Jose Betting Preview: MLS Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tuesday, June 22 article feature image

Alex Menendez/Getty Images. Pictured: Orlando City star Nani.

  • Orlando City welcomes San Jose to hot and humid Florida for Tuesday's MLS showdown.
  • The Lions, who are coming off a crazy 3-2 victory against Toronto FC this past weekend, are unbeaten at home and winners of four of their last six overall.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the match below and explains why he actually likes San Jose to pull of the upset.

Orlando City vs. San Jose Odds

Orlando City Odds -177
San Jose Odds +450
Draw +310
Over/Under 2.5 (-182 / +133)
Day | Time Tuesday | 7:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch UniMás | fuboTV
Odds updated Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings.

Orlando City looks to continue its winning ways Tuesday when it welcomes the San Jose Earthquakes and their struggling offense to Florida for a Major League Soccer action.

Orlando City is unbeaten at home and has won four of its last six games overall. The circumstances of their most recent win were also the oddest, when the Lions earned a 3-2 win over Toronto FC behind closed doors in their own stadium, which Toronto has also used its “home” venue during the global pandemic.

Speaking of venues, San Jose held Austin FC to a scoreless draw Saturday to spoil the inaugural MLS match at Q2 Stadium.

The result also snapped a four-match losing skid, but the Earthquakes have still scored only once in their last five contests.

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Orlando City Starts Fast Against Toronto FC in Win

Of Orlando City’s victories, Saturday’s triumph was easily the most wide open.

The Lions scored twice by the eighth minute, only to give one back within two minutes of their second goal and then see Toronto level six minutes before halftime. Junior Urso then decided the game with his 84th-minute tally to secure the victory.

Despite a reputation of having one of the league’s stingiest defenses, it marked the second consecutive match Orlando City allowed multiple goals (in games separated by a three-week break for international play.)

And according to Stats Bomb, the Lions are conceding more chances of late.

While  2.2 expected goals (xG) yielded to Toronto marked a season high, it was the third consecutive match of allowing at least 1.6 cog and the fourth match in the Orlando City’s last five that an opponent’s xG total exceeded its own.

Striker Daryl Dike could make his first start after coming off the bench Saturday following his return from English Championship side Barnsley, where he scored nine goals during a half-season loan.

Goalkeeper Pedro Gallese (Peru) and midfielder Jhegson Mendez (Ecuador) remain away at Copa America.

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San Jose Struggling at Both Ends of Pitch

That Orlando City has won recently despite trailing opponents in xG won’t surprise San Jose.

The Earthquakes have been on the other side of such circumstances during their four-match slide, compiling 9.3 xG on offense and yielding 7.3 xG on defense. The actual goals? One scored and seven conceded.

It’s also been a combination of factors leading to their under performance in front of goal.

The Earthquakes were wasteful in putting only two of 19 efforts on target in a 2-0 loss to Portland. In a 1-0 defeat against the Los Angeles Galaxy, Jonathan Bond made 12 saves in a Man-of-the-Match performance to frustrate San Jose.

These struggles prompted manager Matias Almeyda to switch things up against Austin FC, beginning in a 3-4-1-2 shape that featured Chris Wondolowski and Andy Rios up top.

The two-striker approach didn’t lead to goals, but it did help spoil an impressive party in Texas. And with 17-year-old Cade Cowell coming off the bench in that match, Almeyda’s leading offensive producer should be plenty fresh to start in central Florida.

Winger Carlos Fierro is out with left thigh injury and defender Marcos Lopez (Peru) is at Copa America.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a trap game for Orlando City if ever there was one.

The Lions are playing three days after a victory when they escaped punishment for some defensive sloppiness. They’re also doing so three days following an emotional rallying point, when they dedicated the win to the family of fullback Rodrigo Schlegel, who lost his father to COVID-19 recently.

Moreover, Orlando City is facing a San Jose team that plays a unique man-marking system and might appear weaker than it actually is.

Orlando City might have earned five more points, but it’s San Jose which has the better xG differential by 1.03 to -0.53 margin. Gallese’s absence is also a big deal. He’s often a major factor when the Lions outperform their defensive xG as well.

No, creating xG doesn’t win you games, but it shows you’re consistently in positions to win them. Selling San Jose at +420 odds with a 19.6% implied probability of victory is price that ignores that reality. Take it.

Pick: San Jose ML (+430)

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