MLS Playoffs Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Nashville SC vs. Inter Miami (Friday, Nov. 20)
Andrew Katsampes/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Walker Zimmerman.
- Expansion teams Nashville FC and Inter Miami go in a Major League Soccer Play-In Round game.
- Inter Miami will be without stars Gonzalo Higuain and Leandro Gonzalez Pirez, who had positive COVID-19 tests.
- Dillon Essma breaks down the match and tells us why he likes Nashville to advance.
Nashville SC vs. Inter Miami Odds
|Nashville SC Odds||+104 [BET NOW]|
|Inter Miami Odds||+290 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+215 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+148/-205) [BET NOW]|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
Two expansion sides meet in Nashville for one of the MLS playoffs play-in games on Friday night.
Two contrasting styles will be at play here when Nashville SC hosts Inter Miami, and it will be fascinating to see which approach wins on the night. Nashville will have a solid shape and look to take advantage of the opposition being out of position. Miami, meanwhile, have all of the sexy signings. They will depend on those big names to create chances and put them through to the next round.
I’m excited for this one.
Nashville enjoyed a successful first season in the MLS, racking up 32 points for a seventh-place finish in the Eastern Conference, which is impressive for an expansion team.
They were particularly steady at home, going 4-5-2. One of those losses was pre-pandemic in February, which I would disregard. In those 11 matches, they conceded more than one goal just twice and kept a clean sheet four times.
Nashville generated 1.05 xG/game and conceded 0.95 xGA/game at home this season. Those numbers are an under bettor’s dream, and I don’t expect that to be too different come Friday night. I expect Nashville to control the pace and shape of the game, as they usually do at home.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Nashville and Miami played twice this season — a 0-0 draw in Miami and a 1-0 Nashville home victory. Miami did improve as the season went along, but the head-to-head results are still a positive thing and should give Nashville some confidence.
When talking about Nashville’s success, I need to mention center back Walker Zimmerman. He was an undervalued part of LAFC’s success last season, and their defending has been a struggle without him in 2020. This isn’t just conjecture, as Walker was recently named the MLS Defender of the Year. His exceedingly excellent and consistent play has been a big reason for Nashville’s success this season.
Nashville are a team I have backed at home consistently over the last few months. Nashville Pk and under 2.5 goals are staples in my MLS portfolio, and I like those same bets here.
Before I jump into Inter Miami, we unfortunately have COVID-19 complications for this match. According to SBI Soccer, multiple Miami starters have tested positive and did not travel to Nashville. No specific names have been reported, but this is clearly unfortunate news.
Inter Miami finished 10th in the Eastern Conference, racking up only 24 points this season. In a normal year, they might not have made it to the playoffs, but here we are.
With it being their first season, it still is a success for Inter Miami to make it this far. David Beckham’s side feature big signings in attackers Gonzalo Higuain and Rodolfo Pizarro, as well as World Cup-winning midfielder Blaise Matuidi. With those names and the high expectations for Beckham’s club, I would say Inter Miami underwhelmed a bit this season. They have the firepower to potentially beat anyone but were rarely able to do put it all together for 90 minutes.
Over the course of their 23 game season, Inter Miami generated 1.25 xG per game, while conceding 1.30 xGA per game. From that perspective, the sides would appear to be very even on a neutral field.
Miami likes to control more possession and be a bit more aggressive, but that also causes them to concede more goals. Over their final 11 games, Miami went 4-1-6 compared to 7-3-13 for the entire season. You would expect the star power to come up big in this spot, but the data says this game is a toss-up.
When I was writing this article, I loved Nashville on the Bet No Draw wager at DraftKings at -125 and under 2.5 goals at -120. Then, the COVID-19 news hit. I liked Nashville in this spot before the news, so I definitely like it after the news. I do like the total of under 2.5 goals at -148 or the alternative line of 2.25 at -112 if you want lower juice.
Nashville (Bet No Draw) on DraftKings -148 is a bet for me. I did get it at lower odds, but still think it’s a play at -150 or better. I do like Nashville to advance to the next round, so if your sportsbook offers that bet option, I’d play that up to -160 odds.
Picks: Nashville Pick (-148 up to -155) | Total Under 2.5 (-148 up to -150)