Sunday MLS Playoffs Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our 2 Best Bets From Matches Featuring Sporting KC & Philadelphia
Angel Marchini/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Walker Zimmerman.
- Two more MLS Playoffs matches on Sunday's card. Two more enticing betting angles.
- Soccer analyst Ian Quillen delivers his best bets for the intriguing showdowns.
- Check out below his detailed thoughts and in-depth analysis tied to his selections.
The MLS Cup Playoffs continue Sunday with a pair of conference semifinal games that have plenty of intrigue.
In the West, Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake meet in a rematch of the 2013 final, as well as a 2021 regular season finale.
In the East, two of Major League Soccer’s best defensive teams meet in Nashville and Philadelphia.
Here’s our best bets for both games on the postseason slate.
Sporting KC vs. Real Salt Lake
|Sporting KC Odds||-195|
|Real Salt Lake Odds||+500|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-155 / +125)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ABC|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here|
Real Salt Lake embraced an uber-defensive posture in their triumph on penalties over the Seattle Sounders.
Without playmaker Albert Rusnak again for their trip to Sporting Kansas City, they’re likely to do the same here.
Can Sporting Kansas City solve it? They have a better chance than Seattle, which was too reliant on Raul Ruidiaz for offense in 2021. But it might take them a while.
Peter Vermes’ side has only created 6.2 expected goals over its last seven contests. And Sporting Kansas City’s 3-1 win over Vancouver in the first round flattered them a bit to deceive.
Meanwhile, Real Salt Lake has been its best defensively when playing the West’s heavyweights (and likely curbing its attacking endeavor). In eight games against the top-three west finishers (Seattle, Colorado and Sporting Kansas City), Real Salt Lake has conceded six goals and 8.0 xG overall.
So, I see the visitors plenty capable of keeping this close, before perhaps running out of gas late. And I’m playing the halftime draw at +145 odds and an implied 40.8% probability.
Quillen’s Pick: Halftime Draw (+145)
Philadelphia vs. Nashville
|Over/Under||2.5 (+110 / -155)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 5:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.|
Philadelphia might not go to the extremes of the New York Red Bulls or D.C. United, but it still thrives on applying a high line of defensive pressure.
And Nashville hasn’t shown a ton of interest in possessing the ball when they’re on road.
This combo could lead to a lot of bluster and not much attacking bite.
Past history suggests as much, with the total going under 2.5 goals in 35 games (including the postseason) when Philadelphia is at home or Nashville is away.
That’s a rate of 71.4%, well above the implied probability at 60.8% of playing the total under 2.5 goals at -155 odds.
There was also only one goal in each of these teams’ two previous regular season meetings. So even if the playoff leg of the series is slightly more adventurous, there’s some margin for error.
Quillen’s Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-155)
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