MLS Odds & Picks For Seattle Sounders vs. LAFC, San Jose vs. Real Salt Lake

Seattle Sounders vs. LAFC

Odds as of Monday at 7:45 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Soccer continues to capture the spotlight Monday at the MLS is Back tournament, with two exciting matches on the card in Orlando.

Crazy twists and unexpected turns highlighted Sunday’s games, with New York City FC stunning Toronto FC and Sporting Kansas City needing penalty kicks to eliminate undermanned Vancouver. It was truly a bizarre night of action, so we shall see what happens in these elimination contests featuring all Western Conference franchises.

The marquee match of the evening is the nightcap, featuring defending MLS Cup champion Seattle taking on tournament favorite Los Angeles Football Club.

The Sounders finished second in Group B action, going 1-1-1 on their way to three points. Seattle earned a 3-0 victory against Vancouver in its group stage finale, which should have it feeling more confident going into the knockout stage of the competition after a rough start to its tournament.

On the other side, LAFC had the offense working despite the fact it's missing star Carlos Vela, who opted to skip the tournament due to concerns with the COVID-19 pandemic. LAFC scored a tournament-high 11 goals in its three matches, including six in a blowout victory against the Los Angeles Galaxy. Diego Rossi racked up five goals in the group phase and got some much-needed scoring held from veteran Bradley Wright-Phillips.

This really is a tough game to handicap, largely due to the fact the numbers are skewed on the LAFC side of things. LAFC boasted a whopping +3.7 expected goals differential and +1.23 expected goal differential for 90 minutes in its group fixtures, but those statistics include that outlying rout of the Galaxy.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

In contrast, Seattle wound up with solid, yet slightly lower numbers (+2.2 xGDiff and +0.72 xGDiff/90 minutes), but those seem to be more in line.

That said, I find value in Seattle to cover the spread as the underdog in this spot and will back it with confidence. I am also sprinkling a little on the total staying under the number.

Seattle allowed just two goals in its group fixtures and historically tightens the screws even more in bigger contests. Expect this to be a chess match on both ends of the pitch.

The Bets: Seattle +0.5 (-114); Total Under 3.5 Goals (-148) [Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

San Jose vs. Real Salt Lake

The opening showdown is highlighted by the appearance of San Jose, which captured first place in Group B in what was somewhat of a surprise considering Seattle and Chicago were the pre-tournament favorites.

The Earthquakes went 2-0-1 and racked up seven points in their contests, which included a +1.6 expected goals differential and +0.52 expected goal differential for 90 minutes.

Real Salt Lake was not as impressive as its counterpart, going 1-1-1 for three points and finishing a disappointing third in Group D play. The club really struggled offensively, collecting just two goals and winding up with some poor statistical numbers (-0.5 xGDiff and -0.17 xGDiff/90 minutes) to boot.

When you combine the form and stats for each club entering this Round of 16 match, everything points favorably toward San Jose. That is why I am backing the Earthquakes to win outright. Those figures also point toward a heavy lean in the direction of the total staying under the number, which is where I will also land.

This should be a low-scoring affair.

The Bets: San Jose (+110); Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110) [Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]