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Netherlands vs. USA Predictions, Analysis: Long Shot Bets to Make

Netherlands vs. USA Predictions, Analysis: Long Shot Bets to Make article feature image
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Sebastian Frej/Getty. Pictured: USA Soccer

  • Looking for some juicy plays to make in the USA vs. Netherlands match?
  • Ian Quillen has you covered with three plus-money plays.
  • Read on for his best props on the fixture.

The U.S. Men’s National Team continues their World Cup campaign on Saturday against the Netherlands in a round of 16 clash after both teams went unbeaten in group stage play.

Netherlands defeated both Senegal and Qatar 2-0 and played Ecuador to a 1-1 draw to top Group A in the tournament. The USA tied Wales 1-1 and England 0-0 before defeating Iran 1-0 to finish second in Group B.

In the process, some patterns have emerged over the course of each team’s games that perhaps should inform how bettors approach this critical clash. Those patterns shape our top three prop bets for the first game of the 2022 World Cup knockout phase.

Given that this is the biggest game for the Americans in more than eight years, we’re also thinking big in terms of potential payout. If even one of these wagers hits, you’ll finish in the green.

Also an important reminder: All soccer wagers are graded over 90 minutes unless specifically stated otherwise, such as our third prop bet regarding extra time.

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Two Goals Exact (+240 via bet365)

Both of these sides have trended toward slightly lower-scoring matches in this World Cup than they played in past editions.

The total has landed on two goals in all three of the Netherlands’ matches at this tournament, albeit with help from a pair of disallowed goals in the final group meeting against Qatar.

Although only 1-of-3 US matches has finished with exactly two goals scored, teams have combined for about 1.8 xG over those three games.

Zooming out, the USA have seen the total land on two exact goals in six of their 11 matches since World Cup Qualifying began in 2021 against opponents who also reached Qatar.

Both Teams to Score in the First Half (+550 via bet365)

In a tournament where most of the goals have come later on in matches, both of these sides have gone against the grain.

The United States have scored both their goals before halftime, one each against Wales and Iran, and in all three games the quality of their performances were better in the first half.

Meanwhile, the Netherlands have also started matches strongly — albeit maybe not as dramatically as the U.S. — scoring only six minutes into their draw against Ecuador and a half-hour into a win over Qatar.

Neither side has conceded before the break this tournament, but neither has faced an opponent that has made as much of a habit of strong starts.

Netherlands to Win in Extra Time (+900 via bet365)

If you’ve followed the USA for a considerable length of time, it’s hard to ignore the symmetry between this team’s run and the 2010 American squad.

Both teams played draws in their first two group matches before earning a hard-fought 1-0 win to secure passage from the group. England were also a group foe in both tournaments.

If you’re the kind to believe history will continue to repeat itself, then ultimately you’d back the United States forcing extra time before succumbing there to the Netherlands.

The USA have lost their last two round of 16 World Cup fixtures in extra time. Such an outcome would again be rational, since the biggest advantage for the Dutch in this game is their bench depth.

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