Newcastle vs. Southampton League Cup Odds, Pick: Soccer Expert’s Best Bet For Second Leg
Bryn Lennon/Getty. Pictured: Southampton.
Newcastle vs. Southampton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -116)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(+118 / -155)|
|Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
The League Cup semifinals resume on Tuesday when Newcastle United welcome Southampton to St. James Park for their second leg.
Newcastle have had a full week to prepare after a 1-0 win on the South Coast in the first leg. The Magpies were deserving of their win, which came through Joelinton’s 73rd-minute strike, although Southampton also had chances.
The Saints will be on shorter rest after seeing off Blackpool 2-1 at home in the fourth round of the FA Cup. It will be their first Tyneside visit of the season, with a league meeting in Newcastle to follow in late April.
Newcastle Regressing But Positivity Remains
The Magpies have cooled off in attack since play resumed following the World Cup, scoring nine times in nine games across all competitions. However, there were signs a breakthrough might be coming in the first leg.
Before scoring his winner, Joelinton had an earlier goal disallowed for a slight handball. And after taking their lead, Newcastle looked more likely to score the second goal as Southampton chased the game (and eventually went down to 10 men).
Excluding the World Cup break, this will be Newcastle’s first match on seven or more days of rest since a 4-1 away win over Southampton in early November.
And despite the club’s new Saudi Arabian owners, it’s not like the Magpies have suddenly stockpiled enormous squad depth. So the extra preparation time here might be particularly valuable.
Newly signed winger Anthony Hudson won’t be eligible to make his debut here, however. He’s cup-tied from an earlier appearance for Everton.
Southampton Showing Inverse Trend
Theoretically, the Saints should enjoy one of the better home-field advantages in England given the distance many teams travel to visit.
However, this season they’ve earned better results on their travels than at the St. Mary’s Stadium. An overall away record of 5-7-0 (W-L-D) and 3-7-0 mark in league play isn’t exactly exceptional, but it could have enough to see them rise to the middle of the table if they’d been better at home. Instead, Southampton sit last in the league.
Southampton’s FA Cup duties might have been a distraction this weekend, but they didn’t appear to require serious exertion. Their victory came despite manager Nathan Jones rotating eight starters from the squad that faced Newcastle in the first leg.
And center back Duje Caleta-Car will be able to return despite being sent off in the first leg following a second yellow-card offense. Under FA rules, that suspension was served against Blackpool.
Newcastle vs. Southampton Pick
The challenge for Jones to save Southampton from relegation is a large one, but they have been more competitive since his arrival just before the World Cup, losing only twice by multiple goals. The latter of those came on Boxing Day.
And the potential for Newcastle to pour it on may be lessened because of the aggregate goals advantage they will enjoy from the first leg. A one-goal win or even a draw would do them fine.
Add in Southampton’s away form, and the probability that this is close is higher than the league table suggests. So, the value here is on the visitors in some fashion, even if Newcastle advance.
The best angle might be Southampton +1.5 goals on the spread at -152 odds and an implied 60.3% probability. It’s not the sexiest payout, but both teams have kept matches pretty tight of late.
If you want to be more aggressive, playing the moneyline draw at +360 odds might also be worth a shot.
Pick: Southampton +1.5 (-152 via BetRivers)
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