Newcastle vs. Everton Prediction & Preview: Back This High Value Prop

Newcastle vs. Everton Prediction & Preview: Back This High Value Prop article feature image

Simon Stacpoole/Getty. Pictured: Miguel Almiron.

Newcastle vs. Everton Odds

Newcastle Odds-165
Everton Odds+480
Over/Under2.5 (-120 / -110)
Day | TimeWednesday |  2:30 ET
How To WatchPeacock
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Newcastle United look to continue their excellent October when they host an Everton side in danger of falling to a third consecutive defeat.

Newcastle are unbeaten in their first three fixtures of the month, easily seeing off Fulham and Brentford before earning a scoreless draw at Manchester United this past weekend.

Everton are coming off losses home to Man United and away to Tottenham Hotspur, the latter a by a 2-0 score that marked the Toffees' first loss by multiple goals this season.

These teams split their league meetings last season, each winning at home.

Newcastle Still Projected For Improvement

As improved as the Magpies have been in their first full season under manager Eddie Howe, the analytics suggest they should be sitting even higher than sixth in the table.

Newcastle's xGDiff entering the midweek slate is +7.1, good for third in the Premier League behind only Arsenal and Manchester City, who sit first and second respectively.

But Newcastle have settled for draws too often — six times overall — including on three occasions when they led opponents by more than 1.0 in xG created.

For all the talk of the ability to spend more on wages and transfers since the club's takeover by Saudi ownership, Howe has leaned on players already in the fold, particularly up front.

Miguel Almiron's four league goals are already tied for his Premier League career best.

Callum Wilson has three goals in six appearances, with Newcastle's recent improvement in form coinciding with his return from a hamstring strain.

Everton Seeking Higher Level

Frank Lampard has accomplished goal number one of becoming tougher to play against this season than Everton were last.

But it's becoming less clear how the Toffees will achieve what has to be their second objective, replacing the chance creation they lost when Richarlison departed this summer for Tottenham.

Everton's eight goals scored are fourth-lowest in the league entering the midweek. While they might be slightly underperforming 10.4 xG created, that latter number is still well beneath EPL average.

After two appearances off the bench following recovery from a knee injury, striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin could make his first start.

But that may not provide all that much help. If you watched Everton closely, it was clear Richarlison's health was far more instrumental to the Toffees' chance creation.

In better news, winger Anthony Gordon will be back from a one-game suspension for card accumulation. He's perhaps the most equipped player on the squad to assume Richarlison's creative mantle, though he's not there yet.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

For all the negative talk of Everton's attack above, they've still managed to score in all but one away match. They have enough quality and set piece acumen in particular to be consistent enough to avoid blanks. It's any hint of explosiveness that has lacked so far.

Newcastle have also conceded in three of five at home. Yes, one of those opponents was Manchester City, but one of two clean sheets came against last-place Nottingham Forest, before Forest made most of their transfer additions.

As it was last week with Everton, yes on both teams to score here is the play for me at -110 odds and an implied 53.5% probability.

It didn't land last week in Everton's loss at Spurs, but it's still a wager that has paid out 60% of the time overall with these teams and 70% of the time when Everton is away or the Magpies are home.

If you want to be more aggressive, the money line draw is a good option, given how these teams have settled for a point in half of their combined games.

The Pick: Yes – both teams to score (-115)

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