Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Preview
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Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Odds
|Nottingham Forest Odds||+120|
|Over / Under|
-110 / -110
Nottingham Forest close out match day 5 when they host Burnley on Monday afternoon.
The Tricky Trees hope to continue their momentum from before the international break, when they defeated Chelsea 1-0 at Stamford Bridge.
Meanwhile, the Clarets hope to grasp their first points of the 2023-24 campaign after being promoted from the Championship last season.
Here is my breakdown of the Nottingham Forest vs Burnley odds, and my pick for the Premier League match on Monday.
Nottingham Forest may have lost some of their momentum due to the two-week international break, but they shouldn't have any issues regaining their rhythm in front of their home fans at The City Ground.
The Trees have defeated Brighton, Southampton, Arsenal and Sheffield United in their past four league home matches, dating back to last season. Much of their success has been the ability of manager Steve Cooper to play to his team's strengths and get the most out of his players.
Forest have a very direct counterattacking style. They average the fewest passes per 90 minutes this season and have only had 15 possessions that have seen 10 or more open-play passes, according to theanalyst.com. While this is certainly not categorized as "champagne football," Steve Cooper's team has been solid in the attack.
Nottingham have scored in every Premier League match this season and currently have one of the most in-form strikers in the league in Taiwo Awoniyi. The 26-year-old has either scored or assisted in every league game to start the season, increasing his goal-contribution streak to eight consecutive league matches.
Awoniyi will be the key on Monday if Forest are to complete their second-best four-game start to a season. Their best start came in the 1994-95 campaign, when they earned 10 points from four games. They went on to finish third that season.
It has been a rude awakening for Burnley upon returning to the top division after just a one-season absence. They haven't only lost every match to start the season, but they have conceded three or more goals in each of them.
The Clarets, led by Vincent Kompany, who is considered one of the best defenders this league has ever seen, is yet to adjust his team's defensive tactics from what they were doing last year in the Championship against the most talented attackers in the world.
Burnley's high man-to-man press that was so successful for them in the second division has been beaten time after time with one decisive pass over the top. Perhaps Kompany made some changes after extra time to evaluate over the international break, but if not, there will be a lot more goals conceded in this fashion for the Clarets:
It's Sonny in Burnley 🤩
— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) September 2, 2023
Despite their flaws defensively, Burnely have shown signs of promise offensively. The Clarets play a much different style than their upcoming opponents. They play a much more possession-based style when in attack, having averaged over 11 attacking sequences per game that accumulate 10+ passes.
Since being shutout in their opening match against reigning champions Man City, they have scored three goals in two games.
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley
Pick & Prediction
We saw these sides play each other recently in the EFL Cup when Burnley came away with a 1-0 win. Both coaches played a heavily rotated roster, however, so there is little to take away from it.
On Monday, we will see the players who have been lining up in the Premier League for each club thus far and coaches hoping to execute their typical schemes. That said, these two teams' offensive styles clash heavily.
In fact, Burnley's defensive pressure encourages the exact game plan and strength of this Nottingham team — playing it over the top.
Rather than taking Nottingham Forest on the moneyline in this tactical mismatch, look to attack their team total.
The line is currently 1.5 and is sitting at plus money, which is good value given the fact they are at home and are against an an opposing team that has allowed 3.67 goals per game.