Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Match Preview

Saturday, Feb. 10

12:30 p.m. ET

NBC

Nottingham Forest Odds	+210
Newcastle Odds	+115
Draw	+260
Over / Under	2.5  -150 / +115

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Nottingham Forest looks for a rare season sweep when it welcomes a refreshed-looking Newcastle United team to the City Ground in Saturday's late Premier League kickoff.

Forest have looked improved since Nuno Espirito Santo took the reins from Steve Cooper, but they still only have five PL victories to their name and none in the New Year. Their best result of 2024 came last Sunday, a 1-1 away draw against 10-man Bournemouth.

Newcastle looks to finally be recovered from a grueling November and December, having gone unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. But they've still conceded way too frequently, allowing three or more goals in four league games since Boxing Day, including a 4-4 home draw against Luton Town a week ago.

The first of those was a 3-1 home loss to Forest, powered by a hat trick from former Magpies-turned-Trees striker Chris Wood.

Here is how I'm betting Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle.

At the very least, Newcastle fans probably won't have to worry about one of their former strikers scoring another hat trick against them, with Wood this time on the shelf with a hamstring injury.

But if Forest fans are being honest, they'd easily trade Wood's health for that of Taiwo Awonyi, who made his first start in a couple of months in last weekend's draw at Bournemouth.

While the Nigerian national didn't find a goal, he did continue Forest's record of earning better results when he's in the XI than when he's out of it; the Trees have now picked up 1.32 points per game in his 25 starts since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, against only 0.72 ppg when he either doesn't play at all or enters off the bench.

And under Espirito Santo, there has been improvement prior to Awonyi's return from the injury shelf, albeit of an incremental nature. Forest have taken seven points from their first six games since Steve Cooper was relieved of his duties, and posted an average -0.18 xG difference per 90 minutes in that span. Those are both up a bit from their overall season numbers of earning 0.91 points a game and a -0.36 xG difference per 90.

But if you add their heavy involvement in the FA Cup — which has required two replays already — it's zero wins in the last seven matches in all competitions.

Forest was one of the more active teams in the winter window, including signing American Gio Reyna on loan from Dortmund. He could make his first Premier League start after coming off the bench in last weekend's draw. He could play a role vacated by Morgan Gibbs-White if the Forest No. 10 is unable to recover from a knock sustained in FA Cup play.

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The combination of UEFA Champions League commitments, a Leagues Cup run and a growing injury list conspired to see the Magpies lose six of eight in all competitions between the start of December and New Year's Day.

But in January, it may have been the boost provided by another competition — the FA Cup — that has helped Eddie Howe's group regain some confidence and momentum.

It began with a 3-0 thumping of derby rivals Sunderland in the FA Cup Third Round. While the fixture that immediately followed was a heartbreaking 3-2 home defeat to Manchester City, it was an obvious better performance against a league heavyweight than Newcastle had given in some time.

They followed that with a Fourth Round win at Fulham and then handed Aston Villa its first home league defeat of the season. And although a 4-4 draw at home to Luton Town was a clear setback, it still saw Howe's men rally from two goals down to take a point.

Newcastle is far from fully recovered from its injuries — with striker Alexander Isak and winger Anthony Gordon the latest to succumb to ailments.

But Callum Wilson and Harvey Barnes returned from the shelf in the draw against Luton. Maybe more importantly, the schedule has shifted to a more manageable pace for the Magpies; this is the fifth game they will have played on five or more days of rest since the start of the New Year. That happened only once in December.

Seeing Newcastle as this heavy of a home favorite can be a discomforting given how poor their away form has been this season.

But the caveat is three of their six PL defeats came during that brutal December. Without that month, the Magpies have taken points in 50% of those away games. They've also earned multiple victories on the road in their Cup competitions.

Meanwhile, Forest haven't played as strongly at home as they did in their initial return to the Premier League Last Season. But what they have managed to do is keep all but one league home game within a goal, including the last time out when Awonyi's late strike made things interesting in a 2-1 loss at Arsenal.

So even with a price above +200, I'm not sure the hosts are the play here or that there's an obvious lean anywhere. Instead, the move is probably to get aggressive, parlaying a moneyline draw with both teams scoring at +333 odds and an implied 23.1% probability. That's more of a feel wager than anything, just based on a belief this game will be within one goal late, so stay small with your wager.

Pick: Draw and total over 1.5 goals, (+333, BetMGM)

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