Orlando City vs. D.C. United Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Back Favored Lions Via This Value Prop Bet (July 4)

Orlando City vs. D.C. United Odds

Orlando City tries to get back to its winning ways at home Monday when it hosts struggling D.C. United in Monday’s Major League Soccer action.

The Lions advanced to the U.S. Open Cup semifinal round last week, winning on penalties in their clash with Nashville SC hard-fought, 1-1 draw. However, the Lions have lost half of their eight home matches in league play.

On the other side, D.C. United has lost three in a row, with the removal of manager Hernan Losada and appointment of Chad Ashton as interim boss in April only briefly halting its negative momentum. The club is on nine days of rest after a 1-0 defeat at Chicago last weekend.

Orlando City swept the season series last year, notching a 1-0 road victory and 2-1 triumph on home soil.

Orlando City

Yes, the Lions have lost four times at Exploria Stadium. However, there's something all four of those opponents have in common: They all entered the weekend holding a playoff place.

Yet, even when they've been the clearly superior team, they've struggled making life easy for themselves. That's sort of hard to do when you haven't scored more than two goals all season.

Maybe a breakout is coming. If so, Ercan Kara could be involved. The first-year MLS forward has scored four of his team-high six goals in his last five games.

By The Numbers

• 4-1-1 — Orlando City’s record (W-L-D) when it scores exactly two goals.
• 305 — Time elapsed in days since the Lions last scored three or more goals in an MLS match, which came in a 3-2 win over Columbus on Sept. 3, 2021.

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D.C. United

Taxi Fountas has been everything D.C.United could've hoped for, even if the team results haven't been great since the Greek attacker's arrival.

Fountas has either scored or assisted on nine of 14 D.C. United goals since April 16 debut. Sure, Fountas could use more help, but the visitors’ real problems have come on the other end of the pitch.

The side has only kept three clean sheets all season and allowed 19 of its 27 total goals conceded in the nine games since Ashton took the reins.

By The Numbers

• 0.0 — D.C. United's total xGDiff in six away games this season.
• -7 — D.C. United's total goal differential in its away matches.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The xG numbers suggest D.C. United should be better overall, particularly on the road. The eye test suggests otherwise, but even so, that combined with Orlando's home form is enough to be wary of playing it on the moneyline.

Instead, I'd rather back the Lions with a more aggressive prop wager at better odds. In particular, I’m playing them to score exactly two goals at +240 odds and an implied 29.4% probability as my top selection.

Orlando City has scored twice in half of its home matches and never more. And while Kara is getting up to speed with the league, this is a team that still misses Nani's quality in the middle and Daryl Dike's ability to stretch the field.

D.C. United has conceded exactly twice in two of six games away and at least twice in four of six matches.

The Pick: Two — Orlando City Exact Total Goals (+240)