Poland vs Netherlands Predictions, Picks | Euro 2024 Match Preview

Poland vs Netherlands Predictions, Picks | Euro 2024 Match Preview article feature image

Dean Mouhtaropolous/Getty. Pictured: Virgil van Dijk.

Poland vs Netherlands Odds

Sunday, June 16
9 a.m. ET
Poland Odds+475
Netherlands Odds-175
Over / Under
 +100 / -125
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Kicking off Sunday’s action at Euro 2024, Poland and the Netherlands meet in Hamburg, Germany, for the opening match in Group D.

The Dutch secured their place in this competition by finishing second in the qualifying group behind France.

Meanwhile, the Eagles needed a playoff win in a penalty shootout at Wales to clinch their spot in this tournament.

Unfortunately, there have been some key injuries for one team in this one, but it should give us some betting value on the other side.

Let's get into my Poland vs Netherlands prediction.


When Michał Probierz was brought in as manager during qualifying, Poland had lost three of their first five games. However, he guided the Eagles to an unbeaten finish to narrowly qualify.

His management will be tested in this tournament due to the recent injury bug that has hit his squad.

In a recent friendly against the Ukraine, Arkadiusz Milik was subbed off early with a knee injury. The Juventus forward has since been ruled out for the Euros.

Meanwhile, the following game against Turkey resulted in more forward injuries. Both Robert Lewandowski and Karol Swiderski were forced off in the first half and are in doubt for this game.

Probierz will have to find replacements quickly, or this could be a quick trip to Germany.


If the last time you watched the Dutch was at the 2022 World Cup, the nation is no longer led by veteran coach Louis van Gaal. Former Barcelona manager Ronald Koeman is back for his second stint with the Oranje.

Outside of the two losses to France, the Netherlands were perfect through qualifying. Koeman’s team also lost to Croatia and Italy to lose in the Nations League semifinal round last summer.

There should be plenty of familiar faces in the squad for the Dutch, but there will be one key omission. Barcelona midfielder Frenkie de Jong will miss the tournament due to injury.

With Atalanta midfielder Teun Koopmeiners also out, the depth in the middle of the field could be a question mark for Koeman.

Poland vs Netherlands


After the injuries picked up to key forwards, Poland have an attack that I am looking to fade throughout this tournament, and it begins in this opener.

With that said, my best bet is to take the Netherlands to Win to Nil at +137 odds via bet365. I would play this down to +110.

To put into perspective what Poland will be missing, the trio of forwards combined for 10 goals plus assists. They also played a direct role in over 70% of the nation’s goals.

This leaves a huge hole against a strong Dutch backline that includes Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool), Nathan Aké (Manchester City) and Matthijs de Ligt (Bayern Munich). This same defense only allowed one goal in the six games against non-French opposition in the qualifying matches.

Even when Poland were at full strength, the nation failed to score on the road at Albania. This same team needed an 87th-minute corner when trailing by three goals to find the back of the net at Croatia.

The way Koeman sets his team up to sit deep defensively should negate any opportunities in transition for Poland. So, I just don’t see the Eagles finding the back of the net in this victory for the Dutch.

Pick: Netherlands Win to Nil (+137)

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