Premier League Best Bets & Prop Predictions: Expert Angles to Final Day of PL Action

Premier League Best Bets & Prop Predictions: Expert Angles to Final Day of PL Action article feature image

Rob Newell/Getty. Pictured: Harry Kane.

For the final day of Premier League play in the 2022-23 season, we asked our soccer experts to come up with their best props and plays for the matches.

Johnathan Wright, Matt Ross and BJ Cunningham delivered with three of their favorite bets for Sunday's action.

Read on for one total, one shots on target prop and a both teams to score play in the final Premier League match day of the season.

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Harry Kane Over 1.5 Shots on Target (+110 via bet365)

Johnathan Wright: Sunday could be Harry Kane's last match in a Tottenham jersey, as there is much speculation that he will be on the move this summer. He will want to go out on a strong note for the club that has molded him into the player he is today.

There is no better club to have your potential farewell match against than Leeds United. The Peacocks have allowed the most goals this season with 74, and over a third of opposing team shot attempts are on target. Moreover, both these teams need to secure all three points for table positioning, so expect the match to be even more open than usual.

Kane is leading the EPL in shots with 121 and is second in shots on target with 51 for an average of 1.38 shots on target per match. With odds at +110, for him to just need to slightly increase his average SoT/90 against the worst defensive team in the league in what could be his farewell match for the North London side is great value.

Tottenham vs Leeds United – Both Teams to Score – Yes (-220 via bet365)

Matt Ross: Looking at every EPL game since early March, Tottenham have netted in 11-of-12 matches (91.6%) and Leeds in 12-of-13 (92.3%). The odds suggest that there’s a 69.2% that both teams score in this fixture. That’s not enough information to evaluate this line, but it’s still useful information.

This game is set up to produce goals – for Leeds, this match is do or die. They can only avoid relegation if they capture 3 points. They will be hunting for goals, and if they fail to lead the scoreline later in the match, expect Leeds to leave themselves defensively vulnerable.

Furthermore, in recent matches Leeds have shown that they can net goals against top EPL sides. Since April, they’ve scored against all four of the top 6 sides that they played. But Leeds struggle defensively – they haven’t kept a clean sheet in 14 matches.

The odds are a bit short, but everything is pointing to both squads producing a goal, so I’m taking it.

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Under 3 (-125 via BetRivers)

BJ Cunningham: The last time these two met it was right before the World Cup break and the under 2.5 closed at -160. Has a ton really changed since then to shift the line on the total over 100 points? I don’t think so.

Nottingham Forest have not been good defensively this season, as they’re near the bottom of the Premier League in npxG allowed, but they haven’t been that bad against teams around them in the table. Against the bottom half of the Premier League table, Forest are allowing 1.40 xG per match, while against the top half of the table they’re allowing 1.95 xG per match.

The Nottingham Forest offense has been bad this season and is almost entirely built on creating chances in direct transitional opportunities or off of set pieces. That’s a problem against Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace, who have been much improved in transition defense rather than Patrick Viera’s high pressing style.

Palace's defense has vastly improved under Hodgson and even though the Eagles' defense has been average overall for the season.

Under Hodgson Crystal Palace have only allowed 8.3 xG in nine matches and all but two of those matches came against teams in the bottom half of the table. Against the bottom half of the table this season, Crystal Palace are only allowing 0.93 xG per match.

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