Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Burnley (Friday, Nov. 6)

Credit:

John Walton/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton’s Adam Lallana, top, fouls Tottenham Hotspur star Harry Kane.

  • Brighton and Burnley come into Friday's match at the bottom of the Premier League table.
  • Both teams have been a bit unfortunate this season but Brighton's underlying numbers suggest they are the stronger side.
  • Jeremy Pond previews the matchup and whether to lay the juice on the Seagulls to get all three points.

Brighton vs. Burnley Odds

Brighton Odds -113 [BET NOW]
Burnley Odds +325 [BET NOW]
Draw +255 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-103/-122) [BET NOW]
Time 12:30 p.m. ET
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Teams already taking part in the relegation battle kick off the week’s Premier League card Friday when Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Burnley at American Express Community Stadium.

Both sides are in dire need of anything positive after terrible starts to their campaigns in England’s top flight. Brighton, sitting just two points ahead of the drop zone, have just one win in seven league fixtures.

On the other side, things are even worse for Burnley. The Clarets are winless, putting them in  in last place on the 20-team table.

With both teams looking for a positive result, let’s take a look at what could be in store in this meeting.

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Brighton

The Seagulls come into this match really needing something to go their way.

Brighton is fresh off a hard-luck 2-1 loss against Tottenham Hotspur in league action. The result just added to the Seagulls’ misery during a campaign where it’s played much better than what its record shows.

Prior to that defeat, the club settled for back-to-back 1-1 draws against Crystal Palace and West Bromwich Albion. Those stalemates came on the heels of setbacks against Everton and Manchester United.

I rated Brighton as a club that would potentially be knocking on the league’s Top-10 door this season, which I think is still possible if it can get on a bit of roll and find a touch better form.

The Seagulls have recorded some respectable offensive numbers thus far, boasting 8.9 expected goals and a solid 7.3 expected goals against. That results in a +1.6 xGDiff and +0.17 xGDiff/90 minutes. Those numbers are pretty solid for a club sitting in 16th place out of 20 teams on the table.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Burnley

Things could not be going any worse for the Clarets.

Burnley has lost six of its last seven league matches, which includes being shutout in its three most recent games. The only positive to come from that brutal stretch was a scoreless draw against West Bromwich Albion, where it secured its lone point.

The Clarets are one of three teams yet to record a win. With life at the bottom of the table becoming the norm, Burnley must secure any kind of positive result in this road tilt to start its ascension up the table.

When comparing statistical data, Burnley trails Brighton in all but one similar category. The Clarets are on 5.1 expected goals and a 6.6 expected goals, resulting in -1.5 xGDiff and -0.26 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Those numbers are pretty bad, particularly the xG figure that is second worst in the league.

Betting Analysis

I have rated Brighton all season long, with the belief that it’s only a matter of time before the club rights its ship. That said, this is the perfect opportunity for the Seagulls to grab their second win of the league campaign.

Brighton hasn’t beaten Burnley at home since the 2013 season when they were both playing a tier below in the Championship. However, throwing history aside, the Seagulls are in much better form and will be my moneyline play.

I will also back the total staying under the number. Burnley’s offensive woes (three goals scored in six matches) are well documented, which leads me to believe this will be a victory for the host side in a low-scoring affair.

Picks: Brighton ML (-113); Total Under 2.5 Goals (-122)

[Bet the Brighton-Burnley match at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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