Premier League Betting Picks, Preview & Predictions: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Tottenham vs. Leeds United

It's time for one more weekend of Premier League action before we go on pause for the World Cup.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the midweek Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

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Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Manchester City vs. Brentford

Dabbundo:The final weekend before the World Cup makes this a really difficult spot for most of the Manchester City squad. Not only are they dealing with a makeshift backline without two fullbacks — Kyle Walker and Joao Cancelo — but how focused is the favorite with the World Cup in a week?

I’d have bet Brentford +2.25 almost regardless of the spot because of their excellent work rate off the ball and positive xG difference. 

Throw in the Bees’ set piece efficiency and the situation and Brentford are clearly undervalued. My projections make Brentford a 1.8-goal underdog and now the spread is more than two goals. Erling Haaland may not be going to the World Cup, but just about every other starter in the City team will be boarding a plane to Qatar after this match.

Brentford have been excellent at defending without the ball in a compact fashion under Thomas Frank. It’s made them a thorn in the side of multiple big six sides since they joined the Premier League last season. They’ll concede space and shots, but they also average the longest average shot distance allowed in the league. 

The Bees effort out of possession gives them a shot in a matchup where City is likely to control 70% or more of the ball. City should win this match, but Brentford will hang around and capitalize on one or two moments to cover this inflated spread.

Pick: Brentford +2.25 (+100)

West Ham vs. Leicester City

Cunningham: Since the fourth match of the season, only two teams in the Premier League have created over 1 xG against West Ham and it was Liverpool at Anfield and Manchester United at Old Trafford. The Hammers are now second in the Premier League in npxG, allowing only 0.87 per match and ever since those first three matches, they’ve allowed just six big scoring chances. 

They’ve also under-performed offensively as they’ve scored just 12 goals off of 17.2 xG. Plus, you look at this from a matchup perspective and Leicester love to control the ball. They actually are top-six in average possession, sequence time and 10-plus pass sequences. They are also really good at playing through pressure, as they are third in Offensive PPDA.

David Moyes' team is playing just the way he wants them to with a low block that has been incredibly effective. West Ham have no problem conceding possession, and they’re playing one of the lowest average defensive lines So, allowing 0.87 npxG per match is incredibly impressive in a low block. 

They are also pretty threatening on the counter, a spot that has been a vulnerability for the Foxes.

Leicester are running ridiculously good offensively right now. Since September 4th, the Foxes have scored 17 goals off of 10.7 xG. Leicester’s average shot distance is 18.6 yards, the second longest in the Premier League.

West Ham is also the fifth most efficient team on set pieces, while Leicester is third worst defensively. 

I have West Ham projected at -110, so I like the value on them at +110. 

Pick: West Ham ML (+110)

Tottenham vs. Leeds United

Dabbundo:Tottenham won their Champions League group with late drama but Spurs have really struggled in the Premier League over the last month.

Losses to Arsenal, Manchester United, Newcastle and Liverpool have them sitting in fourth place in the league. The regression was inevitable for Spurs after their early season performances didn’t match up with the lofty results they had achieved. 

Now they get a tricky last match before the World Cup at home against Leeds United. The Peacocks won two straight games against Liverpool and Bournemouth.

My projections make Spurs around a 0.8-goal favorite at home, and I’m taking Leeds on the road catching a full goal. Because of injuries and the World Cup, Spurs will be without Heung-min Son and potentially Cristian Romero. Romero is a key passer and ball progressor as Spurs attempt to break through the Leeds pressure. 

Last season, I’d say that Spurs would be well set up to take advantage of Leeds' high press to get in behind and create multiple big scoring chances. But Spurs haven’t been good at ball retention through pressure this season. And without Son, the attack lacks the counter-attacking and transition prowess. 

I'll back the Peacocks to get the job done in this spot.

Pick: Leeds +1 (-120)

Newcastle United vs. Chelsea

Cunningham: Their match against Arsenal just highlights what we’ve talking about with Chelsea for the past two to three weeks regarding how poor they’ve been under Graham Potter.

On Sunday in the London Derby, Chelsea created 0.26 xG, got out-shot in the penalty area, committed 10 high turnovers and Arsenal had a field tilt of 66.2%. Newcastle can do the exact same thing to them on Saturday. 

The Magpies are second in the Premier League in high turnovers, they have the sixth highest field tilt, they’ve taken the third most shots from inside the penalty area and they’ve created the second-most big scoring chances.

In their last five matches in the Premier League (if you take away penalties) Chelsea lost the xG battle to Aston Villa, Brentford, Manchester United, Brighton and Arsenal. 

What Chelsea is really struggling with is turning final third possession into a high quality chance because they currently don’t have a go-to striker. In terms of progressive passes + dribbles, box entries and xThreat, Chelsea are in the top six in all of those categories, but they are outside the top 10 in shots in the penalty area and big scoring chances.

I have Newcastle projected at -104, so I love the value on them at +130.

Pick: Newcastle ML (+130)