Saturday Premier League Odds & Betting Picks: Leeds vs. Fulham Preview (Sept. 19)

Credit:

Shaun Botterill/Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United players Helder Costa, left, Jack Harrison and Patrick Bamford, right.

  • Two of the Premier League's newest additions will go at it on Saturday morning, as Leeds comes in as a sizable favorite over Fulham.
  • Neither team won their opening EPL game last week, but Leeds provide some excitement in a 4-3 loss to Liverpool. Does that mean you should be backing the Peacocks this morning?
  • Find a full betting breakdown two picks on the match below.

Leeds vs. Fulham Odds

Leeds Odds -162 [BET NOW]
Fulham Odds +475 [BET NOW]
Draw +290 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-113) [BET NOW]
Time 10 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds updated as of Friday at 3:45 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Some fresh faces take center stage on Saturday morning’s Premier League card, with Leeds United hosting Fulham in a match between promoted clubs.

Both clubs got off to rough starts in their respective returns to England’s top flight. Leeds fell prey to reigning champion Liverpool, suffering a thrilling 4-3 loss at Anfield.

On the other side, Fulham struggled to get anything going in its match against Arsenal and was soundly beaten in a 3-0 shutout at Craven Cottage.

This match has been a long time coming for Leeds, which hosts a Premier League game at Elland Road for the first time in 16 years.

Leeds

If there’s one thing you could take away from the Peacocks’ opener, it’s the simple fact they’re not going to be intimidated by anyone this season.

Leeds did not back down against the European juggernaut and more than held its own in defeat. I fully expect that kind of effort throughout its campaign, with more than just avoiding relegation as the primary goal.

Statistically, there isn’t much to go on after one match. Add in the fact both teams are up from the Championship and there’s even less data. That said, we are taking a look back at last season’s numbers from a tier down and the early data from this campaign.

The Peacocks ended their promotion-gaining campaign with 77 goals for and 35 against for a plus-42 goal differential, which tied for tops in the Championship with Brentford. Currently, Leeds sit on 0.6 expected goals and 3.3 expected goals against for a -2.7 expected goals differential. That results in a -2.74 xGDiff for 90 minutes.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Fulham

The Cottagers received a rude welcome back to the grand stage in their home loss to the Gunners.

When looking at the overall picture and what’s ahead, I really do think Fulham is going to be up against it and fighting for its relegation life. The Cottagers’ offense leaves much to be desired, which is going to take its toll on the team in a very long, taxing season.

As with Leeds, there isn’t much to go on statistically with Fulham. A year ago, the Cottagers finished their campaign with 64 goals and 48 goals against for a +18 GDiff that was good enough for fourth place in the Championship.

Fulham does have better overall numbers than Leeds, though, through one league match. The Cottagers have 0.2 expected goals and 1.8 expected goals against, resulting in a -1.6 xGDiff and -1.54 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Betting Analysis

I really liked what I saw from Leeds on debut. The Peacocks brought some excitement and showed they belong back at this level of play.

Taking that performance into consideration and the excitement that must be dripping from the club ready to play its first home tilt, I am backing Leeds to win and score at least two goals in the contest.

Expect the Peacocks’ colors to be on full display, en route to all three points.

Picks: Leeds (-162); Leeds Total Over 1.5 Goals (-136)

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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