Premier League Odds & Betting Picks: Crystal Palace vs. Brighton, Liverpool vs. Watford
Warren Little/Getty Images.
- Betting the Premier League this weekend? Our soccer expert, Jeremy Pond, takes a look at the most valuable bets on Saturday's schedule.
- See his picks for Saturday including bets on Liverpool vs. Watford and Crystal Palace vs. Brighton.
As several clubs are trying to exit the relegation zone, Liverpool pulled off its own “Great Escape” in its last match in Premier League action, defeating West Ham, 3-2, after falling behind in the second half.
Now, the soon-to-be league champion journeys to Watford for Saturday’s match with a chance at history on the line.
But first, let’s jump into Saturday’s first match — a showdown between Crystal Palace and Brighton.
Crystal Palace at Brighton & Hove Albion
- Crystal Palace odds: +295
- Brighton odds: +106
- Draw: +220
- Over/Under: 2 (-134/+108)
- Time: Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
Two clubs mired in mediocrity go for all three points at American Express Community Stadium when Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Crystal Palace.
Brighton has been stuck in neutral, picking up just one win in its last seven league contests. The Seagulls, alone in 15th place and four points clear of the bottom, have a 1-4-7 record (yes, seven draws) in their last 12 matches. The Brighton offense has been solid, though, recording at least one goal in 10 of those matches and currently sit in 11th place in expected goals (36.68) this season.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Crystal Palace Tale of the Tape
- Crystal Palace is winless in its last six Premier League road matches
- Brighton has played to a 1-1 draw in its last three home league contests
- Crystal Palace has recorded a goal in its last four league road tilts
- The total has stayed under 2.5 goals in Brighton’s last five home league contests
On the other side, Crystal Palace enters the match off a 1-0 shutout against Newcastle United. The victory was good enough to keep the club in 13th place on 33 points and well clear of the relegation zone.
That win was a welcomed result for the Eagles, who went 1-4-6 in their previous 10 league outings and lost three consecutive contests prior to the victory.
Crystal Palace, which is 19th out of 20 teams in expected goals (24.85), has struggled mightily on the road against Brighton and has not won a match at the host stadium since 2013.
These clubs and their respective affinities for tying (and not winning) matches should make for a thrilling affair. Goals have not been a problem for either side when they tussle, with both scoring in their previous five matches.
That said, I am backing both teams to score and taking the better odds by backing the total going over 2.5 goals.
The Bets: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+145); Both Teams To Score: Yes (+100)
Liverpool at Watford Odds
Liverpool odds: -245
Watford odds: +700
Over/Under: 2.5 (-159/+128)
Time: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
The Reds come-from-behind victory on Monday was their record-tying 18th consecutive league victory. It was also Liverpool’s 21st straight win at Anfield, breaking the record in England’s top flight for home victories. Coincidentally, Liverpool set that record almost 50 years ago during the 1972 season.
The coveted league crown is now even closer to Liverpool’s grasp, with the club only needing 12 points in its final 11 matches to secure the championship. Liverpool’s offense continues to fire on all cylinders, which has put it firmly alone in second place in expected goals (58.86) on the table.
Watford vs. Liverpool Trends and Statistics
- Liverpool has recorded a shutout in five of its last six road Premier League contests
- Watford has failed to score against Liverpool in four consecutive matches across all competitions
- Liverpool has scored at least two goals in its last five matches against Watford across all competitions
- Watford has just one loss in its last six home league matches
Watford, currently rank 15th with 33.81 expected goals in in the league, enters the match fresh off a 3-0 road loss against Manchester United at Old Trafford. The setback added to the Hornets’ recent woes, which have seen them go winless in their last five Premier League matches. Watford has very little wiggle room on the table, sitting just a point from safety in 19th place.
This match comes down to class and form, with Liverpool cornering the market in both categories. I think that West Ham scare was something it needed in league play and will have them more focused against Watford. Liverpool wants that Premier League record for consecutive wins to itself and that should come right here at Vicarage Road.
The kicker for me is the historical side of this matchup. Watford has not scored a goal in its last four matches against the soon-to-be league champion.
Play Liverpool and back the total going over the number as well.
The Bets: Liverpool -1 (-140); Total Over 2.5 Goals (-150)