Saturday Premier League Updated Odds, Picks & Prediction: Aston Villa vs. Everton Betting Preview

Saturday Premier League Updated Odds, Picks & Prediction: Aston Villa vs. Everton Betting Preview article feature image

Christopher Lee/Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Steven Gerrard of Aston Villa.

  • Aston Villa hosts Everton in Saturday's Premier League showdown featuring winless clubs.
  • Analyst Ian Quillen breaks down the match and gives his top betting pick loaded with value:
  • Check out below to see where he has had landed ahead of this game.

Aston Villa vs. Everton Odds

Aston Villa Odds-120
Everton Odds+350
Over/Under2.5 (-105 / -135)
Day | TimeSaturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
How To WatchUSA Network | fuboTV
Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The most-played league fixture in English football history resumes when Aston Villa hosts Everton on Saturday to kick off the second weekend of Premier League play.

Both sides are looking for their first goals and points of the new campaign. Aston Villa suffered a 2-0 road loss against newly promoted AFC Bournemouth. On the other side, Everton was dealt a 1-0 home shutout against Chelsea.

The Villans’ 3-0 home victory over their opponents early last season arguably began the Toffees' slide toward relegation danger. Aston Villa had a 1-0 win at Goodison Park in early January that hastened the arrival of manager Frank Lampard to take over for caretaker Duncan Ferguson.

Aston Villa

Expectations for manager Steven Gerrard's side are as high as they've been since Villa made back-to-back UEFA Europa League appearances a decade ago.

Perhaps the weight of that pressure showed in an uninspiring opening defeat on the South Coast. Villa wasn’t as poor as the result, but struggled to create much. Bournemouth scored both of its goals from set pieces.

Center back Tyrone Mings only made the substitutes’ bench after being stripped of the captaincy. A groin injury appears to be limiting the 29-year-old, who appeared in 36 of 38 EPL fixtures a season ago.

Villa will need to improve on its home form to achieve loftier aims this season. Seven of  the Villans’ 13 victories last season came away from Villa Park.

By The Numbers

  • 6-8-5 — Aston Villa's home record (W-L-D) last season.
  • -0.6 — The Villains' 2021-2022 home xGDiff in the metric.
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The Toffees have primarily used the summer transfer window to strengthen their back line, yet they already face injury woes there.

Lampard lost Ben Godfrey and Yerry Mina before halftime of Everton's season-opening defeat. The former is expected to miss several months with a leg fracture, with the latter for several weeks. Loan signing Conor Coady might quickly be called into duty after completing his move from Wolverhampton Wanderers this week.

Salomon Rondon is the only natural striker fit for Lampard's side, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin out with a knee issue.

Everton will be looking to improve on dreadful away form last campaign. The Toffees took only 10 points from their EPL travels, plus only four in nine away games under Lampard.

By The Numbers

  • 2-13-4 — Everton's away record l (W-L-D) last season.
  • -12.3 — The Toffees' away xGDiff from a campaign ago.

Betting Analysis & Pick

As bad as Everton was on its travels, there were signs of improvement late when Lampard began playing a deeper line. The Toffees were competitive in five of their last six away games, all except their final day trip to Arsenal after survival was assured.

It's also the first time in recent memory Everton visit Villa as the side with much more modest expectations.

Villa will be tasked with taking the game to an opponent in a manner that flummoxed it last season. Half of the home wins a season ago came against teams that combined a similar talent level to Villa with an atypical willingness to send numbers forward. Among them? Everton of Rafa Benitez vintage, Southampton and Leicester City.

So, getting -120 odds on the home side feels too steep here. Yet Everton's inadequacy up front is real reason not to back to visitor. That leaves the draw at +250 odds and a 28.6% implied probability the play almost by default, even if it's more about feel than data.

The Pick: Draw ML (+250)

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