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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back Brighton to Throttle Struggling Burnley in EPL Contest

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back Brighton to Throttle Struggling Burnley in EPL Contest article feature image
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Chloe Knott – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion standout Neal Maupay.

  • Brighton & Hove Albion hosts lowly Burnley in Saturday's crucial Premier League match.
  • The Seagulls, who are solid -155 moneyline favorites, are safe from any threat of being relegated.
  • Avery Zimmerman breaks down the contest below and details why he's backing Brighton to bag all three points.

Brighton vs. Burnley Odds

Brighton Odds -155
Burnley Odds +475
Draw +285
Over/Under 2.5 (+115 / -145)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The quest to escape the relegation zone with numerous games in hand rolls on  for Burnley, with its trip to south to face Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday in Premier League action.

While manager Sean Dyche’s squad is in last in the English top flight, the situation isn’t as bad as it seems. With three games in hand due to COVID-19 issues and weather postponements earlier this year, the Clarets have some wiggle room.

The Seagulls enter the contest in a comfortable ninth place, and its recent form is that of a true mid-table side, but will a hungry Burnley squad be able to enter the American Express Community Stadium with a result?

Brighton Sitting in Relaxed Position

It isn’t easy to be an EPL team and be in a secure position, but that’s where the Seagulls find themselves.

Eight points out of a European position and knocked out of domestic competitions, Brighton’s season should essentially be a cruise to the finish line. And by that I don’t mean it will be easy, but I’m not sure that manager Graham Potter will mind.

There’s no remote threat of relegation. There isn’t a pressure to push for a European position, plus Brighton is right in the purgatory of the league. For the Premier League, that’s a fine place to be for any non top-six side.

Brighton’s recent play reflects the position it’s in, both physically and mentally . A win, a loss and three draws in Brighton’s last five games just about sums up where it is right now, and we can probably expect something similar from the Seagulls’ next five contests.

Lewis Dunk will be absent from the fixture due to a suspension, while Enock Mwepu and Jeremy Sarmiento will be sidelined due to injury.

Burnley Fighting to Climb EPL Table

As I mentioned earlier, Burnley is still making up a number of games that were postponed for various reasons earlier in the year.

Because of that, the Clarets have played the fewest amount of games in the league, and they’re also at the bottom of the table. As it stands, Burnley is seven points from safety with two games in hand on Newcastle. It’s not an ideal position, but this is a team capable of progressing up the table.

With that being said, Burnley’s status in the relegation zone is warranted. It’s amassed the second-fewest expected goals in the league, while conceding the second-most xGA. That will certainly have to change if Burnley is to survive, but recent trends have been good.

Burnley has been fortunate in recent outings to generate three points from its last four, but it has also kept the xGDiff of each game to just over one or less. Burnley can grind for results with that margin, and that’s what it has done.

Dyche’s team will be facing some injury results ahead of the fixture, but Burnley will be relatively healthy and eager to push for another result.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Despite Burnley’s status as the bottom side in the league, it has been making strides and improving over recent weeks.

Brighton has played away from home in five of its last seven games, so there isn’t too much recent home form to go off of, but the Seagulls amassed just two points in those games despite maintaining the xG margin in both.

That makes this a difficult spot to pick as the total is somehwat out of play at a juiced -145, so I’m going to make the cautious play on Brighton.

With a 0.18 home xG/game edge and Burnley at -1.21 away from home, I’m going to back the hosts despite Burnley’s intensity likely to be a touch higher.

A touch of regression to the mean from both sides and Brighton seems sensible to me, even if the price is steep.

Pick: Brighton ML (-155)

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