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Southampton vs. Everton Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Smart Bet on Draw (Feb. 19)

Southampton vs. Everton Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Smart Bet on Draw (Feb. 19) article feature image
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Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Mohammed Salisu

  • Southampton makes the trip to Goodison Park for Saturday's Premier League match against Everton.
  • The Toffees have started to make progress under new manager Frank Lampard, but need three points to steer clear of the relegation zone.
  • Ian Quillen takes a deep dive into this game below and details why he fancies a draw happening at big odds.

Southampton vs. Everton Odds

Southampton Odds +110
Everton Odds +255
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-125 / +100)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Southampton looks to continue its promising form Saturday when it hosts an Everton side with an aura of new life under manager Frank Lampard.

After a sluggish start, Southampton has gradually edged upward toward the middle of the table, currently sitting 10th following a three-match unbeaten run. All six of the Saints’ Premier League victories have come since October, with their most impressive victories — away wins to Tottenham and West Ham United — recorded since Boxing Day.

Everton is still in a relegation battle two games into Lampard’s league tenure, but the club has a little more breathing room following a 3-0 home win to Leeds United that was easily its most dominant performance of the season.

It feels like ages ago now, but Everton won the prior meeting in a 3-1 victory at Goodison Park during opening weekend.

Southampton Enjoying Impressive Run of Play

When Saints fans first looked at the 2021-22 league fixture list, they might’ve identified this winter stretch as one of the most difficult on paper.

However, Southampton has emerged with five points from three games against teams above them in the table. They began with a fine home draw to league-leaders Manchester City, continued with a 3-2 win at Tottenham and concluded with a 1-1 draw away to Manchester United last Saturday.

If any of those results were fortunate, expected goals totals suggests only slightly so. In that three-game run, the Saints only trailed their opponents by a 5.1-4.7 combined xG overall.

Che Adams scored an 82nd-minute winner against Spurs and a 48th-minute leveler at United as Southampton twice rescued points from losing positions. Adams is now one of three players with six league goals, joining captain James Ward-Prowse and 20-year-old Chelsea loanee Armando Broja.

If there’s a persisting issue for Southampton amid the optimism, it’s the club’s struggles to generate offense on home soil.

Manager Ralph Hasenhuttl’s squad have scored multiple goals in only three of 11 matches at the Saint Mary’s Stadium, and created more than 1.6 xG at home on just one occasion.

Everton Makes Changes Under Lampard

A few weeks into Lampard’s managerial reign and it sure feels like things have changed, though it’s not entirely clear how. Last Saturday’s win over Leeds was Everton’s most dominant performance of the season, born out by an equally conclusive 2.1-0.3 xG advantage.

Four days prior,  Everton’s defense struggled to cope throughout a 3-1 away defeat to Newcastle United that was as poor as Saturday’s win was good. And in a 4-1 home FA Cup fourth-round win over Brentford on Lampard’s debut, Everton was energetic but arguably fortunate not to concede more.

Perhaps at least this squad have escaped the trend of sluggish starts to matches they developed under former manager Rafael Benitez. After conceding first in 16 of their first 20 league fixtures, the Toffees have scored first in their last two games.

If there’s anything to differentiate the Newcastle loss and Leeds win, it might be the play of midfielder Donny van der Beek. The midseason loan signing from Manchester United made his first start in the latter and brought a much-needed stability in the center in the park.

Betting Analysis & Pick

High-pressing teams like Southampton often trend toward fewer goals scored by both in its home games, when an opponent is less inclined to come forward. Teams like Everton with talent skewed toward the front half of their formation often see an opposite trend.

When two such teams meet, there’s an often a decent opportunity to play an under on the total. And you could do that here, so long as you’re getting even odds or better. That trend has hit 12 of 22 times (a rate of 54.5%) between the Saints’ 11 home fixtures and Everton’s 11 away trips. The teams combined for only 2.44 xG in those fixtures. That said, there’s probably a little value there.

However, somewhat counter-intuitively, both teams have scored in 14 of those 22 games. The pressing Saints have only kept three clean sheets at home, while the Toffees have only one away this season. And that also makes sense if you consider the teams’ respective postures and abilities.

That leads to this logical jump: a game where there’s likely to be some goals but not many goals is a prime candidate for a draw. Seven of the Saints’ 11 draws have come at home; the Toffees have only shared the points four times, but three were away.

In the combined 22-game sample, that’s a 45.5% hit rate. If you believe there’s anything to those numbers — as I do — that makes a draw play here at +255 odds and an implied 28.2% probability a pretty good deal.

Pick: Draw (+255)

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