Thursday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Southampton vs. Newcastle United Betting Preview
Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Southampton standout Che Adams.
- Southampton welcomes Newcastle to Saint Mary's Stadium for Thursday's Premier League match.
- The Saints, who are solid ML favorites, are unbeaten in their last 10 home league games.
- Nick Hennion breaks down the meeting below and explains why he's backing Southampton to get the victory.
Southampton vs. Newcastle Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-130 / -110)|
|Day | Time||Thursday | 2:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Southampton and Newcastle United look to continue impressive runs Thursday when they square off in in a rescheduled Premier League fixture at Saint Mary’s Stadium.
The Saints have proven an incredibly impressive home side, claiming at least a point in 10 consecutive matches at their stadium. Meanwhile, the Magpies have produced an solid run of results to distance themselves from the relegation zone. All told, they haven’t dropped all three points in seven games in a row entering this showdown.
A 2-2 draw was the result between these sides all the way back in the third week of the league season in a match that featured two stoppage-time goals.
Southampton Making Magic Happen at Home
As mentioned previously, a good chunk of Southampton’s success this season can be attributed to its performances at home.
In addition to its aforementioned 10-match home unbeaten run, the Saints have only dropped points at home once all season and has cleaned up against bottom-half sides. It has won three consecutive games against current bottom-half opposition without ever dropping all three points against such opposition, racking up five wins and two draws in the process.
And whereas manager Ralph Hassenhutl’s side has conceded the third-most expected goals away from home, he’s watched his side concede the sixth-fewest xGA through 13 fixtures at Saint Mary’s Stadium, per fbref.com.
Plus, only one bottom-half side (Leicester City) has managed to clear more than one xG against the Southampton defense.
On the flip side, Southampton’s attack has played extraordinarily well lately at home. It has cleared at least one xG in six of the last seven tilts at home, with its only failure coming in a fixture in which Southampton had a man sent off.
Success has come in spades for its attack against bottom-half sides as well, as the Saints are creating 2.2 xG per 90 minutes in their last three outings against that type of opposition. That mark is more than 0.8 xG/90 minutes higher than Southampton’s output for the whole season.
Schedule Has Been Kind to Newcastle
Although Newcastle has strung together an impressive run of results, this will likely be its first real test since late December in league play.
Yes, the Magpies have avoided defeat in seven consecutive matches, but six of those results came against sides currently sitting in 11th place or worse in the table. Plus, if you set aside its 2-0 win over Brentford — the Bees had a man sent off on 12 minutes — manager Eddie Howe’s side could see some negative regression in the near future.
In those remaining six fixtures, Newcastle owns a +5 goal differential on a +2.4 xG differential, per fbref.com. Further, its attacking metrics suggest luck has come for the Magpies, who scored nine times on 7.6 xG in those six matches.
Not to mention the fact they have one of the worst road records in the English top flight. As it stands, Newcastle has scored the third-fewest xG on the road in the league and less than one xG in seven of its last eight road matches played 11 versus 11 on the pitch.
Lastly, although the game finished on level terms at St. James’ Park, Southampton absolutely dominated. Newcastle lost the xG battle by a 3.53-1.23 margin and conceded four big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I don’t like the matchup for Newcastle one bit and think there’s a real chance it loses by multiple goals.
The key to getting a positive result against Southampton is playing well through pressure, as the Saints hold the fourth-best pressure success rate in the EPL. However, while circumstances have definitely changed, Newcastle still owns the third-worst pressure success rate against league sides.
That first fixture saw Southampton produce a 42 percent pressure success rate, which is 11 percent higher than its season average. Plus, Southampton has posted above-average pressure metrics in three consecutive fixtures and three of its last four games at home against the bottom half.
With Newcastle’s attack due for some negative regression, I’m not sure how they keep up with Southampton. I lean toward the over as a total, but I’m a fan of Southampton as a side on the moneyline at -110 odds or better.
Pick: Southampton ML (+100)
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