Monday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Brighton vs. Newcastle Preview (July 20)

Credit:

MICHAEL REGAN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Jonjo Shelvey

  • Updated Premier League odds list Brighton as a favorite over Newcastle United, with the total at 2.5.
  • Newcastle have been fortunate all year, since their underlying numbers indicate they should be much further down the table than they currently are (13th place with two matches left).
  • Get Brad Cunningham's model projections, analysis and his betting pick below.

EPL Odds: Brighton vs. Newcastle

Brighton odds -118 [BET NOW]
Newcastle odds +340 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +255 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-124) [BET NOW]
Time Monday, 1 p.m. ET
TV NBC Gold/Peacock

Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Matchday 37 rolls on Monday as Newcastle heads to the American Express Stadium to take on Brighton. This match has zero implications since both sides have secured another season in the Premier League (though that’s not quite official for Brighton).

So, the only people that will be invested in this match are us as bettors.

Brighton

The Seagulls come into the match after surviving an onslaught from Southampton to draw, 1-1, on Thursday. After going ahead inside the first 20 minutes, Brighton were severely outplayed, losing the expected goals battle, 2.53 to 0.82, in the match.

It’s been a difficult season for the Seagulls, but based on expected points (xPoints), Brighton are one of the most underrated teams in the Premier League. The Seagulls have earned 45.46 xPoints compared to just 37 actual points, so they should be closer to a mid-table position than just above the drop zone.

Since the restart, Brighton have played one of the toughest schedules, facing off against six teams inside the top eight of the table. They’ve held their own against those teams, grabbing seven of a possible 18 points in those matches.

Brighton can secure another season in the Premier League with at least a draw in this match, but I think they have a good chance to take all three points and finish the season strong.

Newcastle

Newcastle were thumped, 3-1, by Tottenham on Wednesday — their third straight loss. Good fortune had been the story of the Magpies’ year, but it looks like theirs is starting to run out.

Newcastle really deserve to be lower in the table than where they currently sit. Based on expected points, the Magpies are 13.54 points higher in the table than where they should be (43 actual vs. 29.46 xPoints). Much of the reason for the variance is due their good fortune defensively.

On average, Newcastle concede 1.53 goals per match, which is significantly lower than their 1.82 xG allowed per match. Defensive regression is starting to happen, as the Magpies have conceded nine goals in their last three matches. I think some of that defensive regression will continue Monday against Brighton.

Analysis

Due to how overrated of a team Newcastle is, I think there is some value on the home side:

  • Brighton projected odds: -137 (57.79% win probability)
  • Newcastle projected odds: +438 (18.57% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +323 (23.63% win probability)
  • Brighton projected xG: 1.74
  • Newcastle projected xG: 0.95

Therefore, I am going to back Brighton to grab all three points and secure another season in the top flight.

PICK: Brighton to win

-118 at DraftKings

CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.
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