Saturday Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Burnley vs. Southampton (Sept. 26)

Burnley vs. Southampton Odds 

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Who is absolutely pumped for Burnley-Southampton on the first day of SEC Football? You know I am! Burnley welcome the Saints to Turf Moor on Saturday in what I see is a pretty even matchup. Both clubs will be looking to add their first point in the Premier League season, and this should be a competitive match.

Burnley

Burnley finished 10th last season with 54 points, surpassing their win total by over 15 points. They typically are good for around 40 points, but really came on strong through the second half of their season. Sean Dyche leads a tough-minded group that earns a lot of 1-0, 1-1 results. They play very solid defense, have a top goalkeeper in Nick Pope and look to capitalize on a few good chances they have each game.

Burnley led off their season with a 4-2 loss to Leicester City. However, they actually generated a +0.53 xG differential in that match, so I wouldn't get too panicked with that result. Over 38 matches last season, they had an xG differential of -0.12. They are coming off of a 2-0 victory over Millwall in the EFL Cup. They are usually pretty tough at home, and I would make this game pretty close to a pick 'em.

Southampton

Southampton finished just behind Burnley last season, in 11th place, driven mainly by Danny Ings. The striker scored 22 goals last season, which amounted to 43% of the team's total goals. I could argue that is too reliant on one player, but I won't, because Ings is fantastic. However, I will say that his xG tally from last season was closer to 15 than 22, so we could see him regress a bit and some others might need to step up in that scenario.

Southampton has played two games in the Premier League this season, losing 1-0 to Crystal Palace and 5-2 to Spurs. The good news is their xG differential is basically even over those two games, leading me to believe they were a bit unlucky, especially against Tottenham. Over 38 games last season, they had a flat xG differential, which would be the mark for a pretty average club. The other small note I want to make is that the Saints just lost 2-0 to Brentford in the EFL Cup on Wednesday. It's just one game, but that's not what you want.

Now typically I love a Burnley under, but I am staying away for now. There have been a lot of goals so far, and I want to see a bigger sample size before I bet totals heavily. This match should really be a pick 'em, especially with Burnley at home. Their two matches last season ended in a 1-1 draw and a 3-0 Burnley victory. However, Burnley are +220 to win and +0.25 (-117). That price is incorrect. I grabbed +0.5 (-160) earlier in the week. I would still play +0.25 and the +220 ML.

The Picks: Burnley +0.25 (-117) & sprinkle some on Burnley ML +220

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