West Brom vs. Burnley EPL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Burnley at Short Price (Monday, Oct. 19)

West Brom vs. Burnley Odds

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After yet another exciting Premier League weekend filled with goals, late drama and competitive matches, Burnley takes on West Brom to kick off a Monday doubleheader in a battle of the Premier League’s two worst attacking sides.

Burnley and West Brom both enter Monday's match in the relegation zone with one point between them, and the two sides have a combined minus-13 goal difference in seven games. This match could be a critical relegation six-pointer come the end of the season.

West Brom

West Brom enters Monday’s match 18th in the table but last in every xG-related statistic. The Baggies are last in both expected goals (xG) at 1.74 and expected goals allowed (xGA) at 10.43. They have managed just one point this season, a draw with Chelsea after giving away a 3-0 halftime lead to the Blues.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

West Brom’s defensive numbers are hampered by a horrid half against Everton while down to 10 men, but the Baggies' early-season performance is simply a carryover from their mediocre numbers in the Championship last season. West Brom’s underlying stats indicate that manager Slaven Bilic's side was not one of the top three side in the second division last season, and like fellow newcomers Fulham, the club appears to have made insufficient improvements to its squad for a season in the Premier League.

Just 1.74 xG from 360 minutes of football is poor, even when you factor in West Brom’s relatively difficult opening set of fixtures against Leicester City, Everton, Chelsea and Southampton. West Brom ranks last in pressing, gets pressed more than any other Premier League team and is second last in possession.

None of these numbers are a recipe for generating chances against Burnley, whose possession rate has actually gone from from last season.

Burnley

The Clarets, like their Monday opponents, couldn’t have had a worse start to the new season. Injuries and behind-the-scenes issues have led to consecutive defeats against Leicester, Southampton and Newcastle.

Manager Sean Dyche's side has struggled to generate much in attack, averaging 0.77 xG per match. However, the Clarets have been unfortunate to concede as much as they have, falling victim to the historically good finishing we’ve seen from across the Premier League to start the season.

Despite conceding eight goals, xG data suggests Burnley should have allowed a Premier League-low 3.65 goals through its first three fixtures. The Clarets’ defense is a major reason why they’ve been able to enjoy such an extended stay in the English top flight despite a limited budget.

West Brom-Burnley pick

I project Burnley as the better team in this match, especially given how poor West Brom has looked at both ends of the pitch. I’ll back the Clarets to win this defensive battle. They shouldn’t be underdogs in this matchup despite their poor start. I grabbed Burnley at +110 and like it all the way to -110 in this match.

Currently, you can get Burnley at +200 on DraftKings.

The PICK: Burnley at -110 or better

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