Premier League Prop Picks & Best Bets: 3 Favorite Plays, Including Leeds United (Oct. 30-31)

Premier League Prop Picks & Best Bets: 3 Favorite Plays, Including Leeds United (Oct. 30-31) article feature image
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Tim Keeton/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United standouts Raphinha and Jack Harrison embrace after Harrison’s goal during a game this season.

  • We have plenty of intriguing matches on the weekend Premier League slate, which means a ton of potential prop wagers.
  • Avery Zimmerman delivers his three best bets, including plays for Manchester City and Leeds matches.
  • Check out below his betting angles, which have solid value in the English top flight.

We have another busy Premier League card this weekend, with several crucial matches taking place in the English top flight. And needless to say, there are plenty of juicy prop wagers on my radar ahead of the matches.

Adding to our already extensive coverage of the event, we’re continuing to deliver more betting angles at The Action Network via our new element that will feature our three top prop plays. From player angles to team and game picks, you will find a little bit of everything to entertain your betting interests.

That said, check out below where I’ve found betting value on three featured props, which come from matches featuring ArsenalManchester City and Leeds United.

Premier League Prop Bets

Leicester City vs. Arsenal

The Pick Total Corners — Between 10 & 12 (+180)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Best odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

I know what you’re thinking. What kind of bet has me trying to predict the exact total number of corner kicks in a match? Somehow, this opportunity actually offers quality value.

In five of Leicester City’s last seven games, the club has combined with its opponent for 11 or 12 corner kicks. For Arsenal, the number is three of seven, and two of the other four contests during that span have contained between nine and 13 corners.

In total, this bet would have cashed eight times in 14 games. And despite the fact there’s a significant amount of variance that goes into corner kicks, this is the most likely range to be in by a margin.

Getting close to +200 odds on an outcome that will occur more than 35% of the time gets you a nice expected value, even if you can’t focus on the total number of corner kicks in a game.

Play the percentages with this matchup.

Man City vs. Crystal Palace

The Pick Man City — Over 2.5 Goals (-135)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET 
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Best odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Manchester City’s matchup with Crystal Palace offers another chance to find plenty of betting value.

The handicap on the game is set at -2 (-130 odds), while the total for goals that Palace will score is set at 0.5 (+105) as well. This means the odds give the Eagles an implied probability of 49 percent. Of course, the juice on this bet means the true implied probability is closer to 45%, but that still has a big impact on my thinking here.

While a push is in play with a whole-number spread, City would need to score at least three goals to ensure a cover and that’s if a 45-49% outcome in Palace scoring a goal doesn’t come to fruition.

If that’s the case, then getting the Cityzens at similar odds to convert three times at Etihad Stadium is a steal. If you need any more convincing, just take a step back and look at the form that each team is in.

City is currently generating 2.3 xG per game at the Etihad, while Palace is conceding 1.9 xG on the road. The numbers are good for second- and third-worst in the league, respectively.

Pay the juice and back Manchester City to score and score more. Then score even more.

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Norwich City vs. Leeds

The Pick Leeds — Over 1.5 Goals (-105)
Day | Time Sunday | 10 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Best odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

In Norwich City’s seven previous games, the club has scored just one goal and been blanked in six of those outings, so it’s easy to understand why one would fade the host side.

For Leeds, the number is three goals in seven games, so they aren’t bringing a prolific offense to the table either.

Norwich sits dead last in the league in expected goals, generating just 0.76 goals per game and looking anemic in the attacking third. The story is a touch different for Leeds, which generates 1.43 xG per game, but hasn’t converted its chances well.

A bigger key to this bet is Norwich’s defense, though neither team has defending at a high level. The Canaries are the worst team in the league when it comes to xGA, conceding 1.84 per contest. Leeds is sixth worst in the English top flight, conceding 1.6 per outing.

Matches between teams in the lower half of the table don’t typically project to be major goal-scoring affairs, but with each team in need of a revitalizing performance, I expect both to come out in an attacking setup.

If that’s the case, with the state of Norwich’s defense, this bodes well for Leeds scoring goals. Considering the Peacocks could be prone to conceding in their own end, they could be forced into pushing for more.

Go with the slight, expected advantage in Leeds.

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