RB Salzburg vs. Chelsea Champions League Betting Prediction, Picks: Matchday 5’s Best Value?

RB Salzburg vs. Chelsea Odds

Kicking off this week’s action in the Champions League, Chelsea travel to Austria to take on Red Bull Salzburg on Tuesday.

These two sides come into the midweek slate as the best teams in Group E, with the Blues topping the group with seven points. Meanwhile, the hosts are only one point behind in second, and all four clubs in the group are still in contention to qualify for the knockout stage.

The first meeting ended in a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge on Matchday 1, and I’m expecting another low-scoring affair in this one.

RB Salzburg Standing Tall

After the groups were released, most fans assumed that the English club would be joined by AC Milan as the teams to qualify out of this group. However, the Austrian side has proven to be a very difficult side in the competition.

Salzburg opened the tournament with draws against the two favorites in the group before securing four points in the following two fixtures against Dinamo Zagreb.

In the four matches, manager Matthias Jaissle’s team has been very stout defensively, holding opponents to under an expected goal and one big scoring chance per game, according to fbref.com.

This is also the same club that has found the back of the net in every group-stage match so far, which will need to continue to secure a spot in the Round of 16.

Chelsea Battling Injuries

Former Brighton manager Graham Potter has gotten off to a decent start to his Chelsea career, holding an eight-match unbeaten run in all competitions coming into this game.

The Blues have really impressed in the UCL, owning a +4.2 xGDiff in his three matches in charge.

Potter has also done a great job shoring up the Chelsea backline. In the trio of games under the new manager, the defense has limited opponents to just 0.4 xG per 90 minutes and only two big scoring chances.

The big question is whether this will continue with multiple key defenders currently out injured, which includes Reece James, Wesley Fofana, Kalidou Koulibaly and defensive midfielder N'Golo Kanté.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Chelsea enter this match listed as the road favorite at -135 odds to go with a total set at 2.5 goals. When I dug into this game, it became very clear that all of the value was on the total.

So, my best bet is for the total to fall under 2.5 goals at -105. This is something I would play to as low as -130 odds.

In the three UCL games under Potter, those fixtures have averaged a combined 2.033 expected goals per 90 minutes, and this same bet would have cashed in two of those matches.

Meanwhile, Salzburg have also played in some low-event games, with all four Champions League matches ending with less than three goals. The combined expected goals average in those fixtures was 1.9.

With Dinamo Zagreb the last game remaining after this one, a draw is not a bad result for Chelsea, so you must wonder if they don’t take as many risks going forward.

To be able to get this at close to even money really jumps out as one of the best values on the board in UCL this week.

The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-105)