Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Aston Villa vs. Newcastle United (Saturday, Jan. 23)
Clive Brunskill/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins goes up for a header over Manchester City standout John Stones.
- Aston Villa faces Newcastle in Premier League action on Saturday afternoon.
- The Villans have figured out how to take care of opponents below them on the table, which gives the under value in this matchup.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down the game and shares a betting pick based on his analysis below.
Aston Villa vs. Newcastle Odds
|Aston Villa Odds||-165|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+130 / -162)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
Clubs struggling to find anything positive on the pitch battle Saturday when Aston Villa hosts Newcastle United in a Premier League match at Villa Park.
The host Villans enter this fixture off three consecutive losses, albeit against Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City, and look to end that skid as heavy favorites in this spot.
On the other side, Newcastle has lost three in a row as well and continues to slide down the league table. The Magpies, who suffered a 3-0 defeat to Arsenal last time out, sit in 15th place with just 19 points.
Let’s take a look at these combatants and see what could be on deck.
Manager Dean Smith and his lads should not be too worried about the scoreline in their last three outings, considering the fact they faced three of Europe’s finest clubs.
Instead, Aston Villa will hope to get back to the form it displayed before the losing streak commenced when it went unbeaten in five consecutive games. The Villans had three wins and two draws during that stretch, yielding just one goal that came in a 1-1 draw with Chelsea.
Looking at Aston Villa’s overall statistics show a club deserves to be hovering around the top half of the table. The Villans sit on 28.0 expected goals and 21.8 expected goals against, resulting in a respectable +6.2 xGDiff and +0.39 xGDiff/90 minutes.
I am not sure Aston Villa is good enough to get in the Europa League mix during the second half of the campaign, but finishing 10th or slightly better in the standings isn’t out of the question.
Things could not be going any worse for the Magpies, who are winless in their last nine fixtures across all competitions. They’ve lost four consecutive league tilts, plus six of their last seven matches overall.
Needless to say, life is pretty dismal on Tyne Side at the moment. A 3-0 loss to Arsenal on Monday marked the third game in a row they’ve been shut out as well, so the issues are at both ends of the pitch.
When comparing advanced metrics with Aston Villa, Newcastle finds itself trailing in all similar categories. The Magpies have a poor 15.8 expected goals and brutal 26.2 expected goals against, resulting in a dismal -10.4 xGDiff and -0.58 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Newcastle is going to be in trouble awfully quick if 18th-place Fulham strings a few positive performances together and starts creeping out of the relegation zone.
The Magpies, who are just seven points clear of the league cellar, must right the ship to avoid a late-season scrap at the bottom.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Aston Villa knows what to do against clubs below it on the table, shutting out Wolves, Burnley, West Bromwich Albion and Crystal Palace in that stellar aforementioned run.
That said, I am backing the total to stay under the alternative number of three goals in this spot. There have been two goals or less scored in nine consecutive matches between these clubs across all competitions. That alone has me feeling cautiously optimistic in this play.
Throw in the fact Newcastle has been blanked in six of its last seven games, and you have what should be a low-scoring confrontation.
Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (-139)