Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Liverpool (Saturday, Nov. 28)
Paul Ellis/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool stars Mo Salah, left, and Sadio Mane.
- Things get started early Saturday when Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Liverpool in Premier League action.
- The Seagulls, who are winless against the Reds since returning to England's top flight, are hoping to pull off the upset victory.
- BJ Cunningham tells us why he expects the offenses to shine in this match.
Brighton vs. Liverpool Odds
|Brighton odds||+460 [BET NOW]|
|Liverpool odds||-167 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+310 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-175/-140) [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 a.m. ET|
|How to Watch||Peacock Premium|
Liverpool looks to go top of the Premier League table Saturday when it visits Brighton & Hove Albion for a match at American Express Community Stadium.
The defending champion has dealt with all sorts of injury issues, but has persevered through them to be tied on points with Tottenham Hotspur for the top spot on the table.
Liverpool will potentially have to do it without five starters as well, due to the fact it’s currently going through an injury crisis. Those ailments became too much to overcome Wednesday, when the Reds suffered a 2-0 loss at Anfield to Serie A side Atalanta in Champions League action.
Brighton is right where it usually finds itself on the league table. The Seagulls are sitting in 16th place, trying to distance itself from the relegation fight.
Brighton will have to erase some past demons Saturday, as Liverpool has amassed a perfect 6-0-0 record against Brighton since its return to England’s top flight four years ago.
The Reds have outscored the Seagulls by a 16-3 margin during that span of games, so the hosts have their work cut out for themselves.
Despite being in the bottom half of the standings, Brighton is the most underrated team in the league in my opinion.
The Seagulls have a minus-2 actual goal differential when their expected goal differential is +1.69. Additionally, Brighton won has the expected goals battle in three out of its four home tilts, but have just two points to show for their effort.
Brighton really struggled against teams at the top of table last season, earning only a point in eight matches against the top four. In those eight fixtures, the Seagulls were thoroughly dominated, losing by a combined score of 23-4.
So far this season, that trend has continued, as their three losses have come against clubs inside the top six in the standings.
If there was a ever a time Brighton had a chance at defeating Liverpool, it’s in this spot, given how shorthanded the Reds are entering this game.
The Reds are back to their winning ways, looking to make it four wins in their last five matches. They’ve been successful via their offense, which is the highest scoring in the Premier League at 2.36 xG per match.
Also, if you throw out the 7-2 loss to Aston Villa, Liverpool has a +10.62 xGD in its other eight matches.
However, the Reds are going through an injury situation at the moment. Center back Virgil Van Dijk; captain and central midfielder Jordan Hendersonl; center back Joe Gomez; and, central midfielder Thiago will all miss the Brighton match. Left back Trent Alexander-Arnold could miss out as well, but is currently listed as questionable.
Matches involving Liverpool have been the highest scoring in the Premier League this season, logging in at 3.69 xG on average. That high number of goals has led to 77 percent of its games having three or more goals scored.
Betting Analysis & Pick
All of Liverpool’s defensive injuries have led to a ton of high-scoring matches, which has me thinking Saturday will be no different. Plus, both Brighton and Liverpool have seen at least two thirds of their matches finish with three or more goals this season.
I have the total projected at 3.29 for this match, so I think there is value on the alternative total of Over 3 goals at -104 (DraftKings) as my top play.
Pick: Total Over 3 goals (-104)