Leeds United vs. Sheffield United EPL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on the Total (April 3)

Leeds United vs. Sheffield United EPL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on the Total (April 3) article feature image
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Matt Dunham – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United star Patrick Bamford, left, celebrates his goal with teammates.

  • Two teams with very different trajectories meet in Premier League action Saturday when Leeds United hosts Sheffield United.
  • The Blades are fresh off a 5-0 drubbing and destined for relegation.
  • Rather than pick a winner, Jeremy Pond is focusing on the total and details his play below.

Leeds vs. Sheffield United Odds

Leeds Odds -200
Sheffield United Odds +525
Draw +350
Over/Under 2.5 (-125 / +100) 
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN
Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings.

Clubs going in completely opposite directions take the pitch Saturday when Leeds United welcomes lowly Sheffield United to Elland Road.

The high-flying Peacocks return from the international break in search of their second league victory in a row. Last time out, Leeds secured a 2-1 win over relegation side Fulham to move to 11th place in England’s top flight.

In contrast, the Blades could not have had a worse outing before the hiatus. Leicester City delivered a 5-0 shellacking to Sheffield United, which sits at the bottom of the table in England’s top flight and are headed toward relegation.

Let’s take a look at these sides and see what might be in the cards.

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Leeds

Manager Marcelo Bielsa and the Peacocks continue to put together another solid, commendable season in their first time back in the first division since the  club’s 2004-2005 campaign.

Leeds has a serious chance at finishing inside the top 10 in the standings, sitting just two points adrift of 10th-place Aston Villa and three back of Arsenal in the ninth overall.

Patrick Bamford continues to lead the line for the Peacocks, with the talisman lingering around the Golden Boot race via his 14 goals. The Leeds talisman is just three goals behind co-leaders Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) and Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur) at 17 goals.

Statistically, Leeds continues to be one of the best — and worst — when it comes to the advanced metrics. The Peacocks sit on a stellar 43.4 expected goals, but brutal 48.0 xGA, resulting in a subpar -4.6 xGDiff and -0.16 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Leeds ranks fifth overall in the xG in the category, but sits 19th out of 20 teams  in the league in xGA this season. These numbers won’t win the Peacocks a spot in European football, but they will make their matches highly entertaining.

Sheffield United

Things just keep getting worse for the Blades, with truly no positive end in sight for the embattled club. They’ve mustered just 14 points through 29 league fixtures thus far, which is half of what 17th-place Newcastle United has in its account at this moment.

The problems have been on both sides of the pitch for Sheffield United, which has scored a league-low 16 goals and conceded a whopping 50 goals. David McGoldrick is the team’s top scorer, but he has recorded six goals during this tumultuous season.

Making matters worse for the Blades is the fact they’ve been downright terrible away from Bramall Lane, losing 14 of their last 16 road league tilts.

When comparing numbers with Leeds, Sheffield is at or near the bottom of the barrel across the board. The Blades have a woeful 24.5 xG and even worse 46.0 xGA, generating a ghastly -21.5 xGDiff and -0.74 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Suffice it to say, these are stats that fully encompass a team headed to the Championship next season.

Betting Analysis & Picks

Leeds hasn’t won two consecutive league matches since January, so taking on Sheffield United in this spot creates a perfect opportunity to accomplish that rare feat for the host.

However, despite my affinity for my beloved Peacocks, I don’t trust them coming out of the break. They face a desperate foe that’s likely going to clog the penalty area, with the hope of springing a counterattacking goal and potentially steal a point at Elland Road.

That said, I am targeting the total and backing the contest staying under the alternative number of 2.75 goals via DraftKings as my top play. The last three meetings between these sides have finished with two goals or less, so I’m confident in this wager.

If you’re looking for something on the prop side, take a swing on Bamford scoring during the affair. He’s been on point throughout much of the season, so he’s worth jumping at +112 odds.

Picks: Total Under 2.75 Goals (-125) | Bamford To Score Anytime — Yes (+112)

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