Southampton vs. Manchester City Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions

Southampton vs. Man City Odds

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Manchester City tries to get back to its winning ways Saturday when it faces Southampton in a huge Premier League showdown at St Mary's Stadium.

The Cityzens are coming off two consecutive draws and need to get going if they want to challenge for the title.

On the other side, the Saints enter this fixture in good form and will not be a push over on home soil.

Southampton

If you would have told me Southampton would be in the top 3 — not Manchester City — at this point in the season, I would have been very surprised to believe that information

Nevertheless, the Saints are playing really well. A few weeks ago, they traveled to Old Trafford and held a second-half lead against Manchester United. Thanks to substitute Edinson Cavani, the Red Devils stormed back to earn the 3-2 win.

Other than that disappointing setback, Southampton has not lost since its second game of the season back in late September.

I don't think the Saints have the quality to finish top four on the table, putting them them behind the likes of Leicester City, Wolves, and Everton as well. However, I don't think this is a fake run of form.

Southampton are scoring for fun, averaging 1.92 goals per game. The defending could use some work, as the Saints have conceded 1.38 goals/game. For Southampton to stay where it's at, it has to stay healthy and continue to generate good chances each game.

A 7-3-1 record after the Tottenham defeat in late September is commendable for a team like Southampton. My guess is the Saints likely windup finishing between seventh and 10th in the standings at the end of the season.

Southampton's advanced data would support this, as its NPxGD (expected goal differential excluding PKs) is -0.38, which is 12th in the league. The reason for this outperformance currently is from striker Danny Ings and its set-piece specialist James Ward-Prowse. Combined, they are responsible for 16 goals and their xG + xA is 7.55.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Ward-Prowse specifically is on fire, outperforming his stats by more than 3 goals, which is likely due to his success on free kicks and corners. Because of that, I do expect them to come back to earth. However, that day won't be.

Manchester City

It's been a poor start to the season for Pep Guardiola and Manchester City. Sitting ninth in the table at this point in the season is frankly shocking. Five draws through 12 matches is too many, especially considering opponents they dropped points against thus far.

Manchester United and Liverpool were acceptable draws, but losing points against West Bromwich Albion, which just sacked its manager, isn't good. The only team the Cityzens looked truly impressive against was Burnley.

The defending has been a strong suit for the Manchester City, which has been a surprise. The Cityzens are tied with Tottenham Hotspur for the league's fewest goals conceded (12) so far during the campaign.

Offensively, it's been more of a struggle some games. I would put that on Sergio Aguero missing matches. Some games Manchester City is just lacking that finisher in the box.

From an advanced metric perspective, it paints a pretty interesting picture. The xG/game comes in at 1.82, which still put the Cityzens in the top three overall. However, that is down from 2.69 per game last season.

Some of this could be fixture congestion, and some of it could be missing Aguero. Gabriel Jesus just hasn't lived up to the hype this season. Not to say he can't, but the finishing has been average in the box for him and the whole club.

We could see this number jump, as Aguero comes back to fitness, but that lower xG number explains most of Manchester City's problems. It has the lowest xGA in the entire league (0.95/game), which is honestly really impressive to see.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

With all that said, my handicapping is to side with in-form Southampton.

I do think Manchester City could be trending upward and the host could be going the opposite direction, which only makes sense.

Aguero will need to make his impact, and Manchester City will need to start creating more chances to get there. I do need to see that before I predict that will happen in a game.

Southampton has lost one game in more than two-and-a-half months, which has me loving the fact we are getting a nice number at more plus-1.25 on an alternative line.

I am just going to take that, and see this as at most a one-goal defeat, and potentially a draw.

Pick: Southampton +1.25 (-122)