Serie A Betting Odds & Pick: Napoli vs. Juventus (Saturday, Feb. 13)
Sportinfoto/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Cristiano Ronaldo.
- Napoli will take on Juventus in a premier Serie A matchup on Saturday afternoon.
- Juve has been on fire as of late, which gives it value over a Napoli team that has struggled against lower-tier teams.
- Check out Matthew Trebby's full betting preview complete with a pick below.
Napoli vs. Juventus Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-120 /-105)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
While it looked for a while like a foregone conclusion that the Scudetto would be returning to Milan this season after almost a decade in Turin, Juventus is now looking like its old self ahead of a big matchup with Napoli on Saturday.
The Bianconeri have found a groove under their new manager, with one of the greatest players of all-time leading the way.
Napoli, meanwhile, is four points out of a top-four spot with a game in hand. While it gets the champions at home, most teams aren’t taking points off Juventus at all of late.
Juventus is red hot and getting plus odds, so let’s try to see if there’s any reason we shouldn’t back it on its trip south.
Since beating Sampdoria back on Dec. 13, Napoli’s season has suddenly sputtered. At that point, Gennaro Gattuso’s side was second in the table on 24 points, trailing league leaders AC Milan by three points with a game in hand. Napoli had scored 26 goals and conceded just eight through 10 fixtures.
Napoli’s last 10 games, though, have been a different story. It has taken just 13 points from 10 games, scoring 18 and conceding 13 along the way.
A closer look at Napoli’s numbers say its attack has underwhelmed. In its last 10, Napoli’s expected goals total is 22.45, according to Understat, and its non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) is third in Serie A.
The results simply haven’t come. Napoli has lost three of its last six games to Spezia, Verona and Genoa, none of which are contending for European places in Serie A this season.
Napoli was also eliminated by Atalanta on Wednesday in the Coppa Italia, but it received a boost in attack via the return of club-record signing Victor Osimhen. It was the Nigerian’s first start since Nov. 8 after a series of cameos as a substitute. Whether Osimhen rejoins the starting lineup against Juventus remains to be seen given Napoli’s depth in attack.
While Napoli’s performances have held strong during its rough stretch of results over their last 10 games, Juventus has climbed back into the Serie A title race during that span.
The Bianconeri lead Serie A since that Dec. 15 date with 11 points from 10 matches, as well as with their 10.11 NPxGD. They’ve given up nine goals in that stretch, which is third-fewest in the league behind Inter and Lazio, which square off on Sunday.
It was always likely to take time for Juventus to adjust from Maurizio Sarri’s free-flowing style of play to first-time manager Andrea Pirlo, and it appears it’s are thriving under the former midfield maestro.
Juventus has returned to the 3-5-2 formation that sparked the start of its run of Serie A championships under Antonio Conte, with a couple of the same names who started for those teams leading the way.
Defenders Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini seem as though they’ll be at the club forever, and they’ve been joined by Danilo to form a strong back three of late.
Federico Chiesa and Alex Sandro have formed a dynamic duo as the wingbacks, as well, with Chiesa scoring five goals in his last nine league games.
The wingbacks play a huge role in Juventus’ attack, providing width for the three-man midfield and two-man strike force, the latter of which has been led by Cristiano Ronaldo, who has scored three times in his last three matches in all competitions.
Betting Analysis & Picks
While Napoli’s attack is stout and could give Juventus problems, this seems relatively straightforward in terms of finding betting value.
Juventus is red-hot at the moment, only trailing league-leaders AC Milan by seven points and Inter by five with a game in hand on each and a lot of the season remaining.
Despite that gap, Juventus is the second favorite on DraftKings to win Serie A at +250, trailing only Inter (+125).
I’ll take the proven winners in this match and on the season. Right now, they’re a winning machine. A Napoli side that cannot even beat some of Serie A’s lower-half teams is not worth backing against one of the best in Europe.
Pick: Juventus ML -109