European Soccer Odds & Picks: Our Staff’s Top Underdogs to Bet This Weekend (Feb. 13-14)
James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Burnley standouts Chris Wood, left, and Matthew Lowton.
- Burnley was part of last week's live underdog plays on the European soccer landscape.
- Well, the Clarets return again, with two of our analysts backing them among our five plays.
- Here are this week's four upset specials below:
Another week of European soccer. Another pursuit of live underdogs.
The Action Network soccer analysts are back at it again, looking to uncover some potential upset winners across the continent's footballing landscape.
If you're new to this preview, our soccer experts look to uncover live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend in Europe Whether it's a match in La Liga, Serie A or the Premier League, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver an upset victory.
Now, our focus has switched to this weekend's quartet of clubs we believe have a shot at scoring an upset.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart vs. Hertha Berlin | Hertha | +215 | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Crystal Palace vs. Burnley | Burnley | +215 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| Metz vs. Strasbourg | Metz | +200 | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| Levante vs. Osasuna | Osasuna | +225 | Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
Jeremy Pond: Stuttgart vs. Hertha Berlin (+215)
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
Clubs mired in recent slumps go at it when Stuttgart welcomes Hertha Berlin to Mercedes-Benz Arena for this intriguing Bundesliga affair.
The hosts enter this match having lost four of their last five contests, highlighted by a 5-2 shellacking against Bayer Leverkusen last time out. Stuttgart's lone win came two fixtures back via its 2-0 home win over Mainz.
On the other side, the Old Lady has lost four on the bounce and sits right above the relegation-zone line in 15th place. However, Hertha Berlin put up a respectable showing in a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Bayern Munich in its most recent league fixture.
Statistically, Stuttgart continues to be one of the league's more balanced outfits in the advanced metrics. The Reds sit on a stellar 38.6 expected goals, but subpar 31.5 expected goals against, resulting in a solid +7.5 xGDiff and +0.35 xGDiff/90 minutes.
When comparing stats with Stuttgart, Hertha Berlin's overall numbers are not anywhere close to its hosts. The Old Lady is on 24.8 expected goals and paltry 29.9 expected goals against that result in a decent -5.1 xGDiff and -0.25 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Obviously, the compiled statistics point solely toward the Stuttgart's direction, but the home side has been downright horrific in their own city. That victory over Mainz? It was the Reds' first home triumph in nine matches on home soil, improving their record to 1-3-5 (W-L-D) at Mercedes-Benz Arena.
That said, I'm taking a shot on Hertha Berlin coming off that solid effort against Bayern Munich and end its six-game winless streak in league play.
Back The Old Lady to turn back the clock.
Anthony Dabbundo: Crystal Palace vs. Burnley (+215)
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
Injuries are mounting for Crystal Palace, which will be without its best player — Wilfried Zaha — on Saturday with it hosts Burnley in a Premier League match.
The Eagles started the season well, picking up three wins in their four first games. However, they’ve been in relegation form in terms of results and performances since then.
Crystal Palace have 10 players on their injury report who are unlikely to play or already ruled out. For the season, the Eagles have overperformed their expected goals numbers in attack by about four goals.
In contrast, the Clarets have underperformed its numbers by about four goals. Basically, they've created different perceptions of similarly mediocre attacks.
Based on my projections, Burnley and Crystal Palace are about even. Throw in a modest home-field adjustment for the Eagles, and they still shouldn't be significant favorites.
Burnley could see the return of striker Chris Wood, who is its most important attacker as well. He’s still listed as questionable to play in this fixture.
This pick is more of a fade of Crystal Palace, whose attack is among the league's worst. If Burnley can grab a goal, it will be difficult for Crystal Palace to come from behind in this contest.
At a live +240 odds, the Clarets are worth the play.
Matthew Trebby: Crystal Palace vs. Burnley (+215)
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
Crystal Palace has lost 17 of its last 19 games without Wilfried Zaha, according to Opta, having not scored in 15 of those defeats.
If that’s not enough of a reason to take Burnley at plus odds in this match, then I’m not sure if there’s anything else I can tell you.
Once again, the host Eagles will be without their star attacker in a matchup that they would find difficult regardless. While the Clarets sit 16th in the table, mostly due to the fact that they’ve scored just 14 goals this season, their 29 goals allowed through 22 games is as many as Liverpool has given up, placing the two clubs in a tie for ninth in England's top flight.
There have been signs of life from the Burnley attack, though. On either side of losses to Chelsea and Manchester City, the Clarets scored three against Aston Villa and delivered an impressive display in a 1-1 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion.
While Burnley scored just once against the Seagulls, the 2.1 expected goals signified a dominant performance.
Burnley is difficult to break down anyway. Take away Zaha and chances that Crystal Palace scores multiple goals fall somewhere between slim and none.
Take the Clarets.
BJ Cunningham: Metz (+200) vs. Strasbourg
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
Metz is starting to climb up the Ligue 1 table, as it's currently sitting in seventh place. Most of that success has come against teams below it on the table. In 17 matches against teams in eighth place or lower, the Maroons have a +3.00 xGD and only two losses in those matches.
When it faced Strasbourg on the road earlier this season, the match ended in a 2-2 draw. However, Metz was the better side that day, dominating the expected-goals battle by a 1.66 to 0.79 margin. The Maroons have also been really solid defensively at home as well, allowing only 1.08 xG per match.
Strasbourg is currently in the relegation battle, just six points above the drop zone in the French top flight. The reason it's down there is because it features one of the league's worst defenses, allowing 1.44 xG per match.
The Racers have also been very fortunate to have been awarded nine penalties this season, which is the most in Ligue 1. In fact, only 19 of their 32 goals have come from open play, so Strasbourg is really reliant on creating scoring chances from dead-ball situations.
So, I have a hard time seeing how Strasbourg is going to create chances from open play against a solid Metz defense that's allowing only 0.76 xG per match from open play.
I have Metz projected at +151, so I am happy to take the seventh-place team at +200 at home against the 16th-place team on the table.
Kieran Darcy: Levante vs. Osasuna (+225)
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET
Osasuna is currently in 15th place in La Liga, just two points above the relegation zone. The club have won only five of its 22 league matches so far this season. Not a team you’d normally get too excited about, right?
Well, the Reds are in a pretty good spot this weekend. Levante is six places ahead of it on the table, but only five points separate the two clubs in Spain's top flight. More importantly, Levante might be tired or distracted by Thursday's 1-1 draw at Athletic Bilbao in the first leg of its Copa del Rey semifinal.
It’s only the second time Levante has ever advanced this far in Spain’s domestic-cup competition, so that's arguably its bigger priority right now. The one question mark entering this fixture is the availability of Gonzalo Melero, who scored the Frogs' goal. Melero left Levante left that game due to injury.
As for Osasuna, it's are coming off a deserved 2-1 win over Eibar last week. In that match, the Reds finished with a 1.7- 1.0 xG edge, according to fbref.com. That was their second win in the past three matches, and they’ve taken at least a point from seven of their past nine fixtures.
And in the two defeats (losses to Real Betis and Granada) during that stretch, the expected goals finished even. That said, Osasuna needs the three points more than Levante, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they get them.
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