Bundesliga Preview: Schalke 04 vs. Werder Bremen Odds, Picks and Predictions (Saturday, May 30)

Schalke 04 vs. Werder Bremen Odds

Odds as of Tuesday and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Schalke hosts Werder Bremen on Saturday morning in a matchup featuring two teams headed in the wrong direction.  Die Königsblauen currently sits in 9th place, two points off a Europa League playoff, but have been the worst team since Bundesliga resumed play. Schalke has not collected a point and has been outscored, 9-1, in their three matches since play resumed.

While Schalke will be desperate to get off the schneid, this is a must-win game for 17th-place Werder Bremen, who are five points from safety.

Schalke 04 

Schalke has been in a horrific run of form since way before the break. David Wagner's side is winless and has a -7.36 expected goals differential in its last 10 matches dating back to Jan. 25.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Schalke is a way more talented team their current run of form indicates. They finished second in the Bundesliga two seasons ago and made a run to the Round of 16 in the Champions League in 2018-19. There hasn't been any significant turnover in their roster from those seasons, so their current slide is  puzzling.

Despite only losing once in their first 10 matches at VELTINS-Arena, Schalke grades out as an average team at home this season with a -2.13 expected goal differential.

Werder Bremen

Relegation looks almost certain for Werder Bremen. Die Werderaner has the worst offense (27 goals) and the second-worst defense (59 goals) in the Bundesliga. Their offensive numbers are inline with their xG, but their defensive numbers (46.33 xGA) suggest they've been a bit unlucky in front of their own net this season.

That being said, Werder Bremen have overachieved on the road this season. Die Werderaner has 16 points in 14 matches away from home this season, but those results are unsustainable as their expected road output should be somewhere around 11 points. Additionally, Die Werderaner's expected goals on the road this season is 13.37, which is dead last in the Bundesliga.

Analysis

Both teams are in horrible form and need all three points in this match but my numbers suggest that Schalke is the more likely team to win on Saturday:

• Schalke 04: 1.45 xG
• Werder Bremen: 0.97 xG

Based on those numbers, I think there is value in plugging your nose and backing Schalke on the "Draw No Bet" moneyline.

The Bet: Schalke Draw No Bet (-124)

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