Wednesday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Atalanta vs. Lazio Preview (June 24)


Claudio Villa, Getty Images. Pictured: Duvan Zapata

  • Updated Serie A odds for Wednesday's match between Atalanta and Lazio list Atalanta as a favorite, with the total at 3.
  • The underlying metrics consider Atalanta perhaps the best team in Serie A this season, while Lazio's metrics say they've been slightly overrated.
  • Get our full preview for Atalanta vs. Lazio below.

Lazio at Atalanta Odds, Pick

Lazio odds +230 [BET NOW]
Atalanta odds +108 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +270 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (-112/-112)
Time Wednesday at 3:45 p.m. ET

Odds as of Tuesday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

This season was shaping up to be something truly special for Atalanta.

Not only were La Dea putting up terrific results in Serie A, but they also were in the middle of an unexpected run to the quarterfinals in their first-ever Champions League appearance.

It wasn’t long after Atalanta thrashed Valencia, 8-4 on aggregate, in the Round of 16 that the world came to a halt due to the pandemic.

Atalanta’s inspiring season was quickly back-burnered as the club’s home city of Bergamo became a hot spot for the virus. Fortunately, things have settled down in Northern Italy and the people of Bergamo can start to focus on their beloved team as it resumes its magical season.

Runs like the one that Atalanta were on are often propped up by luck, but La Dea’s success is legitimate as they have the best expected goal differential in Serie A this season. Even though they are in fourth place, Atalanta may be the best team in Italy right now.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Lazio has also put together a splendid season. The Eagles currently sit in second place in La Liga and are the only team within striking distance of pace-setters Juventus.

Unlike Atalanta, Lazio’s results are a tad misleading as their league-leading goals against record is 8.45 goals better than their xG allowed this season. In other words, Lazio is very fortunate to be in second place and their statistical profile suggests they should be closer to fifth in the league.

Lazio Atalanta
Goals for per game 2.31 4.19
Expected goals for per game 1.9 3.68
Goals against per game 0.88 1.35
Expected goals against per game 1.18 1.15
Total goals per game 3.19 1.97
Total expected goals per game 3.08 2.66

Any worries about the break messing with Atalanta’s form were quickly quashed by a 4-1 victory over Sassuolo this weekend. It was a quintessential La Dea performance. There were scoring chances at both ends of the pitch with 5.58 total expected goals created, but in the end it was Atalanta who deservedly took all three points.

While Atalanta grade out as Italy’s best offense, they will not have an easy time with Lazio, who rank first in goals allowed and fourth in xG conceded this season. Just because Lazio’s defense is due for regression doesn’t mean it isn’t stellar.

While Atalanta tries to go out there and out-score their opposition, Lazio are a committed defensive team that has the luxury of backing up a top-four offense. Lazio will certainly try and muddy up this match, but I don’t see that being the case, especially since this will be their first game since the end of February.

All season long teams have tried to slow Atalanta down but La Dea have a way of goading you into playing the style of soccer that they want to play. At 4.19 total goals per match, Atalanta games feature 0.67 more goals per game than the next team, Lecce. Gian Piero Gasperini’s team have no issue giving up scoring chances because they know they will create plenty of opportunities at the other end.

Atalanta scored twice in the first 30 minutes in their first match back and I expect La Dea to be on the front foot out of the gates in this contest, too. Lazio figures to be a bit rusty off the long layoff and they could be down a goal or two before they find their legs.

I’ll likely play Atalanta on the full-game moneyline, but I think the first-half moneyline is my favorite bet of the match.

Pick: Atalanta 1H Moneyline (+155)

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