Bologna vs. Sassuolo Odds, Picks: Betting Predictions for Serie A Wednesday Action

Credit:

Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured; Bologna manager Sinisa Mihajlovic

  • Wednesday's Bologna vs. Sassuolo Serie A match (3:45 p.m. ET, ESPN2) is expected to be a tight one, according to oddsmakers.
  • Updated Serie A odds list Bologna at +128, with Sassuolo as +200 underdogs.
  • Check out our Bologna vs. Sassuolo betting preview, including predictions and a best bet pick.

Sassuolo at Bologna

Sassuolo odds +200 [BET NOW]
Bologna odds +128 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +255 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (-114/-108)
[BET NOW]
Time Wednesday at 3:45 p.m. ET
TV ESPN 2

Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


We’re at the part of the Serie A season where some matches mean nothing towards the title race, relegation or the hunt for European Football. That is the case for Wednesday’s showdown between ninth-place Bologna and 10th-place Sassuolo.

Bologna

Bologna scored two goals in the span of six minutes in the second half to pull off a huge upset over Inter Milan on Sunday. It was another strong result for I Rossoblù, who are one of the more underrated teams in Serie A.

Based on expected goals, they’ve been unlucky both offensively and defensively this season:

Actual Expected
Goals For 43 49.21
Goals Against 47 41.24

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Bologna typically play out of a 4-2-3-1 formation, which provides teams with multiple options going and encourages creativity from their attacking players.

Lately, Musa Barrow has benefited from playing of the left side of this formation he’s averaging 0.54 xG per 90 minutes since the restart.

Sassuolo

The Neroverdi’s fantastic form since the break has pulled them out of the relegation battle and they have clinched an eighth straight season in Serie A. Sassuolo have picked up eight of a possible 15 points and have a +1 goal differential (14 GF, 13 GA) in their five matches since the restart.

Sassuolo also plays out of the 4-2-3-1 formation, but they haven’t mastered it yet. The Neroverdi have an -0.50 average expected goal differential (1.51 xGF, 1.91 xGA) when they play out of the 4-2-3-1 this season.

Analysis

Even though Sassuolo have been in a good run of form, I think they are getting too much respect in this match:

  • Bologna projected odds: -149 (59.81% win probability)
  • Sassuolo projected odds: +403 (19.87%)
  • Draw projected odds: +392 (20.33%)
  • Bologna projected xG: 2.13
  • Sassuolo projected xG: 1.12

Based on those numbers I am going to back an underrated Bologna side to grab all three points at home.

Pick: Bologna +128

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