Shakhtar Donetsk vs Barcelona Prediction | Champions League Picks
Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty. Pictured: Robert Lewandowski.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Barcelona Odds
| Shakhtar Donetsk Odds | +900 |
| Barcelona Odds | -400 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +110 / -138 |
Barcelona could clinch their spot in the UEFA Champions League knockout rounds when they travel to take on Shakhtar Donetsk on Tuesday afternoon.
Barcahave been the side to beat in Group H, going undefeated in their three matches, including a 2-1 home victory against Shakhtar in their last UCL outing. A win or tie on Tuesday will stamp their ticket to the round of 16.
On the other side of the coin, the Miners can't be eliminated with a loss on Tuesday, but it would definitely put the Ukrainian side in a hard place if they are to drop more points. They sit third in the group, behind FC Porto, with three points from three matches.
Here is my breakdown and Shakhtar Donetsk vs Barcelona prediction in my latest Champions League picks.
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Shakhtar Donetsk
Manager Marino Pusic walked away pleased with his team's latest performance on the road against the reigning La Liga champions after being hired just a day before the match.
Though Shakhtar lost the xG battle 2.73 to 0.93, they won the second half 1-0 after conceding two first-half goals, indicating that Pusic had the full attention of the squad and was able to make some positive adjustments.
"We changed some things at halftime, although the team did well in the first half," the former Feyenoord said in his post-game presser. "If we can change things during a game against such an opponent, then we have potential and character. And this is what I am most satisfied with."
Some of those changes were to play more purposeful direct passes. Barcelona's high press caused problems for the Ukrainian outfit in the first 45, but once they were able to adjust and break that initial press with one or two passes, the game opened up. Shakhtar completed just 38% of their long balls in the first half to 52% in the second half.
Their ability to break the press was also the key to their second-half defense, as Barcelona completed 12% fewer passes in Shakhtar's final third in the second half than they did in the first.
With a few games and multiple weeks of practice under their belt with the new manager, Shakhtar will be more confident in this second go-round against Barcelona.
Barcelona
Barcelona manager Xavi was equally satisfied with his team after their result against Shakthar. Not only because they pulled out a narrow 2-1 victory, but because they did so without multiple top players.
They were without top goal scorers Robert Lewandoski, Andreas Christensen, Pedri and Raphinha. However, the injury crisis is now over, as all four players will be available on Tuesday, with Lewandowski set to get the start.
Barcelona have not lost a match in all competitions this season in which Lewandoski has started. They have won nine of the 10, with the one draw coming back in August in the first league match of the season. The 35-year-old striker will be eager to add another tally to his 92 Champions League goals.
The return of Lewandkski and others will not only boost an offense that is already second in UCL group goals thus far (8) but also help defensively. Due to the lack of attacking options, Xavi was playing Joao Cancelo on the right wing rather than in his primary position of right back.
Although the Portuguese defender is great on the ball and in attacking play, this will bring better shape and discipline to a defense that has conceded just one goal in their three Champions League games and has yet to allow more than 0.9 goals in xG in any of their three group games.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Barcelona
Prediction
While this fixture is considered to be a home match for Shakhtar, it will be played in Hamburg due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, so there will be no true home-field boost taking place.
Still, the Miners are a team full of resilience and fight and can make this match a tricky one for Xavi's men. However, at the end of the day, with an almost 100% healthy Barcelona squad, the talent gap between these two sides is far too wide.
Barcelona failed to take advantage of all of their goal-scoring opportunities in the first fixture, but if they can accumulate those type of chances again on Tuesday, you have to fancy those to find the back of the net with someone like Lewandowski leading the charge.
Expect Barcelona to remain perfect in group play and comfortably book their ticket to the Champions League knockout rounds for the first time since 2020–21. Back the Catalan side on the spread.
Pick: Barcelona -1.5 (-130 via Caesars)
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