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Sheffield United vs Newcastle Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Betting Analysis

Sheffield United vs Newcastle Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Betting Analysis article feature image
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Pictured: Alexander Isak of Newcastle United. (Photo by Domenic Aquilina/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Sheffield United vs Newcastle Odds

Sunday, Sep. 24
11:30 a.m. ET
USA Network
Sheffield United  Odds+550
Newcastle Odds-223
Draw+375
Over / Under
2.5
 -150 / +120
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Newcastle United look to win consecutive league matches for the first time this season when they visit Sheffield United on Sunday.

On the heels of their first top-four finish in 20 years, Newcastle have started their next campaign slowly. The early fixture list hasn't helped, with Manchester City, Liverpool, Brighton and Brentford all on the calendar in the Magpies' first five league games.

Sheffield United still have only one point since earning promotion back to the Premier League. But the Blades have been within a goal in every single goal they've played, most recently being dealt a brutal 2-1 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur on two second-half stoppage-time goals.

The home side won the last three meetings in this fixture, with the last two coming in the 2020-2021 Premier League campaign.

Here is my pick for Sheffield United vs Newcastle.

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Sheffield United

Paul Heckingbottom's Blades have shown plenty of defensive resolve so far in their top flight return.

Sheffield United have conceded only nine times so far this season, fewer than six EPL sides entering the weekend. In the process, they've outperformed their expected goals totals considerably, playing to a -4 goal difference against a -7.9 xGDiff.

But when you overperform to that extent and you're still at the bottom of the table, it suggests an unsustainable existence. The Blades are simply going to have to show more attacking threat than they have so far if they want a chance to survive more than one season in their latest Premier League stay.

On the more optimistic side, summer signings meant to bolster the attack have come good so far. Former Coventry City man Gustavo Hamer has scored twice in his first four EPL appearances, his second giving the Blades a second-half lead against Spurs.

Cameron Archer scored on his club EPL debut in a 2-2 draw with Everton two match days ago.

Forward Oli McBurnie will be suspended after receiving a red card very late in the Spurs defeat.


Newcastle

It's tempting to look at Newcastle's early season results and conclude they are struggling living up to the raised expectations that came from last year's fourth-place finish.

In reality, it's much more about the schedule.

The Magpies lost 1-0 at Manchester City, 3-1 at Brighton and Hove Albion and 2-1 to a Liverpool side that has been Newcastle's bogey opponent in recent years.

In those three games, only City significantly out-created Newcastle in terms of xG. Only the Liverpool result could be described as a bad loss after Newcastle carried a 1-0 lead and a man advantage into the 80th minute.

That said, Eddie Howe's squad will have to re-acclimate to the demands of European competition after securing a return to the UEFA Champions League.

Newcastle opened the UCL campaign with a 0-0 draw at AC Milan on Tuesday, and which they were somewhat fortunate to escape with a point.

The game was early enough in the week that it shouldn't have major implications for Sunday's fixture. Plus, Miguel Almiron and Callum Wilson, last year's top two scorers for the Magpies, came off the bench at the San Siro.

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Sheffield United  vs Newcastle

Betting Pick & Prediction

What Newcastle excelled at during their best performances last season was pulling away from inferior opposition even if that opposition was playing at home.

The Magpies scored three or more goals in five of their 10 away matches against teams who finished bottom half of the table, including four times against the bottom seven finishers and twice against the three sides who were relegated.

It's likely that explosiveness is still there — we saw it briefly in a season-opening win against Villa.

On the other hand, Newcastle struggled at keeping clean sheets, doing so only twice in that 10-match sample.

So without any obvious value on the moneyline here (I'd back the draw if forced to decide), I like two scoring props. Newcastle to score three or more goals at +165 odds and an implied 37.7% probability, and Sheffield United to score exactly one goal at +155 odds and an implied 39.2% probability.

The Blades have found exactly one goal in three of five so far. And they can't keep living on their defensive edge forever.

Picks: Newcastle total over 2.5 goals (+165 via PointsBet), Sheffield United 1 goal exact (+155 via Barstool)

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