Slovenia vs Denmark Predictions, Picks | Euro 2024 Match Preview

Slovenia vs Denmark Predictions, Picks | Euro 2024 Match Preview article feature image
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Soccrates/Getty. Pictured: Benjamin Sesko.

Slovenia vs Denmark Odds

Sunday, June 16
12 p.m. ET
FS1
Slovenia Odds+425
Denmark Odds-138
Draw+250
Over / Under
2.5
 +120 / -150
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Favored Denmark will meet Slovenia in Sunday's middle kickoff in a fixture that may be a must-not-lose occasion in regards to both teams' knockout phase hopes.

Adding to the urgency will be familiarity from their two recent qualifying meetings in Group H. Denmark took four points from their two games, but both were tightly contested affairs with only one goal between the sides over two matches.

Denmark will be looking to replicate their rousing run to the 2020 semifinals (played in 2021 on account of the pandemic) and also put some of the disappointment of a group stage exit from the 2022 World Cup behind them.

Meanwhile, Slovenia are attempting to advance to their first ever major tournament knockout phase in their fourth attempt, and just their second trip to the European Championships.

Let's dive into this Slovenia vs Denmark matchup.


Slovenia

As a group, Slovenia are a bit of a throwback to a previous era of football tactics that have more or less been eradicated at the highest levels of club football.

But the 4-4-2 with a low block employed by manager Matjaz Kec worked more often than not on the international qualifying stage, where simplicity often wins out given the lack of time teams can spend in training.

RB Leipzig's 21-year-old striker Benjamin Sesko is a major reason, having scored five times to help Slovenia finish two goals in front of the Danes on goal difference. He just signed a club contract extension this week, but that may not stop suitors from the Premier League's upper tier trying to pry him away from the Bundesliga.

In goal, Slovenia have one of the tournament's most experienced No. 1s in Atletico Madrid's Jan Oblak. Although he's had one of his more uneven seasons for his club, he kept four clean sheets in eight qualifying appearances and saved 76.9% of the shots on target he faced.


Denmark

Denmark ultimately finished ahead of Slovenia atop Group H on the first head-to-head tiebreak, but they probably could've made their job easier with more cutting edge in the final third.

The Danes had 58% possession or more in all 10 of their qualifiers — and 80%-plus in three of those — yet only posted more than three goals once, in their 4-0 win over traditional minnows San Marino.

Manchester United's Rasmus Hojland was overwhelmingly the focal point of the attack, scoring seven of the Danes' 19 goals and averaging just over one per 90 minutes. His club teammate Christian Eriksen was one of two Danes with three assists along with Wolfsburg's Jonas Wind.

Manager Kasper Hjulmand's squad are also looking for their first tournament-opening win since a 1-0 triumph over Peru to start the 2018 World Cup in Russia.


Slovenia vs Denmark

Prediction

The Danes have the higher quality roster and should be favored, but given their track record in early tournament games, less than even money is steep.

You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find a tournament where Denmark scored multiple goals in its first group match of either a European Championship or a World Cup, when they bested Uruguay 2-1 in South Korea. That's not a formula for a a comfortable victory, even if Slovenia are limited. And this version of Denmark has already shown difficulty pulling away from inferior opposition in the qualifying stages.

So my recommendation is to bet both the straight draw and Denmark to win by exactly 1 goal, which should be available at similar prices. Taken together, it's essentially a wager at -125 odds and 55.5% implied probability that the match finishes as either a draw or a one-goal Denmark win. At BetRivers, the latter selection is actually a draw wager in the "starts 1-0" 3-way spread market.

Pick: ML Draw (+260 via DraftKings), Denmark to win by 1 goal exact (+260 via BetRivers)

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