Slovenia vs Serbia Preview | Euro 2024 Predictions & Picks

Slovenia vs Serbia Preview | Euro 2024 Predictions & Picks article feature image
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Clive Mason/Getty. Pictured: Erik Janza.

Slovenia vs Serbia Odds

Thursday, June 20
9 a.m. ET
FS1
Slovenia Odds+400
Serbia Odds-125
Draw+240
Over / Under
2.5
 +100 / -125
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Kicking off Thursday’s action at Euro 2024, Serbia and Slovenia battle in Munich for Matchday 2 in Group C.

The Eagles started their tournament with a 1-0 loss to the tournament-favorite England where their attack struggled.

Meanwhile, the Slovenian squad picked up a point against Denmark in the nation’s first game at a major tournament since the 2010 World Cup.

These two former Yugoslavia countries need a positive result in this matchup, and I’m expecting a high-intensity game at the Allianz Arena.

Here is my Slovenia vs Serbia preview. For more soccer on Thursday, check out our Copa America preview.


Slovenia

Slovenia are looking to make the knockout round for the first time as a nation, failing to do so in the three major competitions in its history.

This goal is already off to a solid start by fighting back to pick up the draw against Denmark. If there were 10 more minutes, the Slovenian squad likely would have found a way to win the game.

The country will need its star striker Benjamin Šeško to play well for the momentum of the great second half against the Danes to continue.

The RB Leipzig forward led Slovenia in qualifying with five goals, and he found the back of the net 18 times in all competitions for his club this season.


Serbia

A 1-0 defeat to the tournament favorite does not seem like the worst result on paper. However, it was troubling to see how bad the offense was.

In the loss, Serbia only managed to generate 0.18 expected goals and one shot on target, while failing to create a big scoring chance according to fotmob.com.

For a team with a front three of Aleksandar Mitrović, Dušan Vlahović and Sergej Milinković-Savić, the Eagles have to find a way to create more scoring opportunities.

The level of opponent should get easier for this Serbian squad here, but we still need to see them click in Germany to make a deep run.


Slovenia vs Serbia

Prediction

The reason I mention that the Serbian attack needs to come alive is because I do not trust the defense. This lack of confidence only leads me to back the underdog in this match.

So, my best bet is to take Slovenia on the Asian handicap of +0.75 at -119 odds at bet365. I would be this to -130, and you can even take +0.5 at a plus price of +105.

In qualifying, Serbia failed to claim a clean sheet in six of eight matches. This is why the Eagles have struggled against better opposition.

Since 2023, Serbia have played five games against teams who have qualified for this tournament. The Serbians have lost all of those contests, which included a pair of losses to Hungary in qualifying and a defeat to Austria in a pre-tournament friendly.

As for Slovenia, I think there should be plenty of threat going forward to find the net at least once in this game. Plus, this has been a country that has shown it can be difficult to beat.

Since 2023, Slovenia have a pair of draws against Denmark to go along with wins in friendlies over the United States and Portugal.

I just feel Serbia is being overvalued here, especially for a team that struggles to keep clean sheets.

Pick: Slovenia +0.75 (-119)

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