- There are several key matches across Europe this weekend including Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Monchengladbach.
- By looking at stats and data, there are four value plays in La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga.
With another international break soon approaching, we’re looking to find the best value across Europe again this weekend before the domestic leagues take a two-week hiatus.
This week I’ve picked out four matches across three leagues (Serie A, La Liga and Bundesliga) that have value.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Moneyline odds: Cagliari vs. Bologna
- Cagliari moneyline: +112
- Bologna moneyline: +311
- Draw: +224
- Over/Under: 2 (-136/+121)
- Kickoff: Saturday, 9 a.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN+
It’s safe to say that Cagliari’s clash with Bologna isn’t a headline match in Serie A this weekend, but there’s still an angle to take up in favor of the visitors.
Filippo Inzaghi is starting to make his mark on the side after a tough start to the season, and Bologna have won two out of their last three matches to leapfrog their hosts this weekend.
They’ll be hoping to extend the point gap from one to four on Saturday morning, and have a strong record in this fixture in recent years.
With Bologna unbeaten in the last six encounters between the two, drawing the last three after three successive wins, their price of +311 immediately led me to the double chance market. A win or draw for the away side could net a nice return.
Bet: Bologna +0.5 -123 (5Dimes)
Betting odds: Getafe vs. Levante
- Getafe moneyline: +449
- Levante moneyline: -139
- Draw: +281
- Over/Under: 2.5 (-104/-111)
- Kickoff: Saturday, 10:15 a.m. ET
- Channel: fuboTV, beIN Sports Connect
Notoriously difficult to break down, Getafe will hope to get back to winning ways when they host Levante this weekend. Unlike the visitors, whose seven games have seen a total of 25 goals thus far, the hosts have seen under 2.5 goals scored in all of their LaLiga outings this season, so a repeat certainly seems like the most likely outcome.
However, there is a way to squeeze more value out of this match by looking back over the last six meetings between the sides in this venue. There haven’t been goals at both ends in any of said matches, and an outcome of only one or neither team to score has played out in all of Getafe’s home games this season, along with two of Levante’s three matches on their travels.
Bet: Both teams to score = NO -119 (Bookmaker)
Betting odds: Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Monchengladbach
- Bayern Munich moneyline: -484
- Borussia Monchengladbach moneyline: +1328
- Draw: +645
- Over/Under: 3.5 (-127/+112)
- Kickoff: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: FS2
Having surrendered their customary top spot in the Bundesliga last weekend, Bayern could manage only a draw at home to Ajax in the Champions League and are now without a win in three games.
After a strong start to life under Niko Kovac, the Bavarians have hit a road block, and Gladbach are unlikely to be an easy obstacle to overcome either.
The Foals have avoided defeat in three of the last six meetings between the sides, although it’s the goal line market that offers real value for Saturday’s clash.
The bookmakers are all but guaranteeing a high-scoring game, but three of the last four encounters between the two at the Allianz have seen under 2.5 goals scored, and each of a scuffling Bayern side’s last five matches in all competitions have ended with fewer than three goals scored.
The price on a repeat of under 2.5 is huge, so under 3.5 is a much safer bet that still offers the opportunity for a considerable profit.
Bet: Under 3.5 goals +112 (5Dimes)
Betting odds: Atletico Madrid vs. Real Betis
- Atletico Madrid moneyline:-186
- Real Betis moneyline: +704
- Draw: +286
- Kickoff: Sunday, 10:15 a.m. ET
- Channel: beIN Sports Connect
With both having come through European matches in midweek, it’s fair to say Sunday’s clash in Spain’s capital is unlikely to be a goal fest. Six of the last seven meetings between the two sides have seen under 2.5 goals scored, with four of the last six seeing one goal or less.
Atleti have kept three consecutive clean sheets in LaLiga and are renowned for their defensive solidity, but Betis have been even stronger in that regard of late.
Since a shocking 3-0 defeat at home to Levante on the opening day of the season, Quique Setien’s side have gone unbeaten in eight games in all competitions and are yet to lose away from home. That’s due to an outstanding record at the back, having kept seven clean sheets in said streak without a defeat, having not conceded in any of their four outings on the road thus far.
Bet: Under 1.5 goals +197 (Bookmaker)