Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Southampton vs. West Brom (Oct. 4)

Southampton vs. West Brom Odds

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Coming off its first win of the season, Southampton hosts newly promoted West Brom in an early match for Stateside fans. The Saints took down Burnley, 1-0, in their last match thanks to — you guessed it — a Danny Ings goal. West Brom, meanwhile, gained its first point of the season last time out against Chelsea in a match that saw the Baggies blow a 3-0 halftime lead.

Southampton

The Saints started their win over Burnley very well, with Ings' goal coming in the fifth minute. Most of the second half was spent protecting the one-goal advantage, but it was a welcome result after season-opening defeats to Crystal Palace and Tottenham. The two losses weren't necessarily indicative of Southampton's performances, though. According to Understat, expected goals in the loss to Crystal Palace just narrowly favored the Eagles, 1.40-1.26, and the expected goals were level at 2.28 in the Saints' 5-2 loss to Tottenham.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

With Ings having scored in three straight matches and coming off a 22-goal league season, the Saints have a proven threat in attack to score in any match. Among sides competing in the middle half of the Premier League table, that gives Southampton a huge edge.

West Brom

The Baggies narrowly missed out on a shocking victory last weekend. They went 3-0 up on Chelsea in the first 30 minutes, only for the Blues to storm back for a 3-3 draw that was sealed by an extra-time equalizer.  While disappointed not to hold onto the win, West Brom surely would've taken the point before the match.

The one point from three games for West Brom could possibly be explained by playing three quality teams in Leicester City, first-place Everton and Chelsea to begin its return to the Premier League. The Baggies' advanced data is not encouraging so far, as they have generated 0.53 xG per game while conceding 3.16. In total, they've created the fewest xG in the Premier League and conceded the most. That's not great, and a match against a side like Southampton could provide a more realistic idea about what kind of side West Brom will be like this season in what will surely be a battle for survival.

Pick

I think this is my favorite Premier League play of the weekend. Advanced data would tell us that West Brom is the worst club in the Premier League through three weeks. I have to fade them on the road against a club that really should win this game by multiple goals. The current -129 moneyline for Southampton seems like great value. Expect Ings to make the Baggies pay on one end of the pitch with West Brom's lack of creativity proving costly on the other.

Pick: Southampton moneyline (-129) or -1 (+143)

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