Arsenal vs. Burnley Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Dec. 13)

Arsenal vs. Burnley Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Dec. 13) article feature image
Credit:

Rich Linley – CameraSport via Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Dyche (left) and Mike Arteta.

  • Burnley makes the trip to The Emirates to face Arsenal in Sunday's Premier League action.
  • The Gunners enter the game in a disappointing 15th place on the table in England's top flight.
  • Dillon Essma gives his insight and explains why he likes the Clarets in a low-scoring affair below.

Arsenal vs. Burnley Odds

Arsenal Odds -200 [BET NOW]
Burnley Odds +575 [BET NOW]
Draw +325 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-109/-114) [BET NOW]
Time 2:15 p.m. ET
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Arsenal welcome Burnley to the Emirates Stadium on Sunday for their next Premier League fixture.

This one could be cagey, like all Burnley matches. On top of that though, Arsenal are struggling to create scoring chances. We’ll see if they can finally break through.

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Arsenal

It’s been a very disappointing start to Mikel Arteta’s first full season as Arsenal manager. The Gunners enter Sunday sitting 15th in the table with an alarming six losses in their first 11 matches.

Arsenal are considered a top-six team in the Premier League, but they sure aren’t playing like one. Arsenal rank 15th last in the EPL in non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) this season at -3.01.

That number tells the story of how they have been poor on both ends of the pitch this season. Last season, the issues were at the back. Now, there isn’t really anything the Gunners are doing well at the moment.

When I hear people talk about Arsenal, I hear how little they create offensively and that their star Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has lost a step. However, the Gunners are also 15th in non-penalty expected goals allowed (NPxGA) at 1.27 per game. That needs to improve if they are to begin moving up the table.

Arsenal has had success in the Europa League this season, winning all six of their group-stage fixtures, although that was with mostly younger players on the fringe on the squad. Domestically, Arsenal are coming into this game winless in their last four games. Prior to that, they had a nice win over Manchester United.

The Gunners’ loss to Spurs had a similar expected goals total from the United win, but Harry Kane and Son Heung-min were lethal on the counter attack. In their previous three matches (losses to Aston Villa and Wolves and a draw away to Leeds), Arsenal were just thoroughly outplayed.

Arsenal have been a successful fade this season. I think I was one of very few that was bullish on Tottenham and not on Arsenal entering the season, and that has come to fruition. I do expect them to finish mid-table but am going to need to see some progress before I just assume that to be the case.

Burnley

Burnley have also been struggling this season, as they currently sit 18th in the table, in the relegation zone. A large reason for that is that some key players were missing early in the season.

If we exclude the 5-0 defeat to City on Nov. 28, I think Burnley have been playing a lot better of late. Two draws against analytical darling Brighton and Everton, as well as a win over Crystal Palace, are welcome results compared to what it was like for the Clarets at the start of the season.

Not having to deal with injuries is key for a club like Burnley, which is low on financial resources compared to the rest of the Premier League. When two of your starters go down, it’s tough to cope. As long as they can stay healthy, I think the Clarets will avoid relegation.

Burnley struggle the most with fast-paced attacks, and I don’t see that being the case with Arsenal. I expect this one to be physical, and one with few chances. The Crystal Palace win was huge for manager Sean Dyche and Burnley, where they even won on xG 1.75-1.28 (very rare for Burnley). The 1-1 draw against Everton was a bit fortunate, but it was kind of a classic Burnley performance.

They usually limit scoring chances for their opposition and really make teams earn any goal they score. Given that Arsenal are struggling on that front, I think Burnley could potentially grab a point on the road here. It will come down to if the Clarets can score one of their own, something they struggle to do at times.

Betting Analysis

It feels good to have Burnley back in the betting portfolio. I like the Clarets +1 (-105) and under the game total at 2.5 (-114).

I would expect another 1-1 draw here. Outside of the Man City defeat, it is usually difficult to net two against Burnley when they are playing well. I believe the Clarets are playing more like their usual selves.

I can’t call the Arsenal turn, and will need to see more before I bet them.

Picks: Burnley +1 (-105) and Under 2.5 (-114)

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